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Two-Sided Risks Come into View for the Economy
The Fed is stuck between a rock and a hard place right now. With WTI crude oil prices jumping above $90 per barrel this week (Chart 1), we are going to see a sizable inflation shock over the next few months, at the very least. As a placeholder, we have raised our WTI oil price forecast by 15% to an average $69 in 2026, which raises our CPI inflation forecast to 2.7% y/y, up 0.3 percentage points from last week’s forecast. The increases in core CPI and core PCE inflation are lifted by a tenth to 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively, this year. A data-dependent Fed that has grown more concerned about another year of missed ... (full story)
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