Schmid: The Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy

I’m so pleased to be with you today. My parents were California state employees and lifelong credit union members. They taught me the value of saving at an early age, and I too am proud to be a lifetime credit union member. In fact, my first car loan was from a credit union. At the time, my mother admonished me that the point was to save for the future, not to borrow to buy a sports car. Alas, I was in my early 20s and had my own priorities. Now, as president of the New York Fed, I oversee an organization that has several important responsibilities—including implementing monetary policy. Today, I’m going to talk about the U.S. economy and how the Federal Reserve is working to achieve its dual mandate goals of maximum employment and price stability—which, for us, are two sides of the same coin. Like most coins, this one can be broken down into smaller denominations, and I’ll discuss some of those, too. Before I go further, I must give the standard Fed disclaimer that the views I express today are mine alone and do not necessarily reflect those of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) or others in the Federal Reserve System. Importance of Credit Unions Federal Reserve's Williams: Eventual rate cuts intended to keep policy from becoming too restrictive. NYFED'S WILLIAMS/CU CONF: EXPECT INFLATION TO COME DOWN TO AROUND 2.5% THIS YEAR, HITTING 2% TARGET NEXT YR #Williams #FederalReserve #economy Fed's Williams expects the unemployment rate to decline this year and next. Fed's Williams: Central bank rate policy stance currently well positioned.

FED'S WILLIAMS: OIL PRICES DO INFLUENCE INFLATION, AND THAT IMPACT WOULD CHANGE NEAR-TERM INFLATION OUTLOOK, WILL HAVE TO ASSESS PERSISTENCE Just in | Fed's Williams: Comparing the Iran conflict to the Russian invasion of Ukraine is challenging due to the uncertain duration of the oil shock. *FED'S WILLIAMS: TOO SOON TO GAUGE IRAN WAR IMPACT, US RESILIENT TO OIL SHOCKS FED'S WILLIAMS: THE FED WILL HAVE TO CONSIDER SPILLOVERS OF IRAN ACROSS FOREIGN MARKETS AND TRADING PARTNERS, BUT IT IS TOO SOON TO DRAW CONCLUSIONS. ...