ECB: The next move is up | Crypto Craft

  • ECB: The next move is up

    From swissmacroandhistory.substack.com

    The ECB met on 5 February. My view is simple: the next move in interest rates is more likely to be up than down. Markets still see some probability of a cut this year. I do not. Let me explain why. Earlier this year I estimated a reaction function for the ECB. It suggested that r* in the euro area is about –0.3% when core inflation is used to compute the real interest rate. That number is not unreasonable. At r*, inflation should be stable. Headline HICP inflation in the second half of last year fluctuated between 2.1% and 2.4%. Core inflation moved between 2.3% and 2.4%. So inflation has stabilised. That is ... (full story)

Comment Options
ZforexCM
Feb 16, 2026 1:28am
Permalink
The euro held near $1.19, remaining close to late January highs as confidence grows that the ECB is in no rush to ease policy. Inflation has stabilized near the 2% target, leaving rates close to neutral and reducing the need for immediate action.

While markets still price some chance of a rate cut later this year, the ECB’s latest messaging points to a more balanced outlook. The economy is holding up, unemployment is at record lows, and public spending is rising. At the same time, services inflation remains elevated, and wage growth is firming, suggesting domestic price pressures may persist.

A softer dollar, supported by easing U.S. inflation, has also helped keep EUR/USD supported.

EURUSD Support & Resistance Levels
R1: 1.1920 | S1: 1.1840
R2: 1.1970 | S2: 1.1780
R3: 1.2000 | S3: 1.1730
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro-edges-toward-monthly-highs-5452.png Size: 58 KB
Reply
Czyker26
Feb 15, 2026 11:04pm
Permalink
The Australian Dollar is looking really really good right now, .73 on the way !!!!!

Hell with the terrible ECB and their Euro.......
Reply

  • Related Stories

Trump would back Israeli strikes on Iran's missile program if U.S.-Iran talks fail: report
From english.news.cn | Feb 16, 2026 | 82 comments
U.S. President Donald Trump said he would support Israeli strikes on Iran's ballistic missile program if negotiations between Washington and Tehran fail, U.S. media reported on Sunday. Trump made the remarks when he met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at Mar-a-Lago in Florida in December, according to a CBS News report, citing two sources ...
ECB’s Lagarde Pushes Back Against Taxes to Stop Capital Outflows
From finance.yahoo.com | Feb 15, 2026 | 5 comments
European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said creating incentives for investments in Europe is a better approach to prevent capital outflows to other regions than imposing taxes. Current market developments signal that investors are interested in allocating more capital in Europe, Lagarde said Sunday during a panel discussion at the Munich Security ...
ECB’s Nagel touts euro-denominated stablecoins for payments
From msn.com | Feb 16, 2026
Euro-denominated stablecoins can be a valuable tool for cheap international transfers, supplementing the European Central Bank’s push for a digital common currency, Governing Council member Joachim Nagel said. Discussing transatlantic frictions, the Bundesbank president said Europe must become more independent on payment systems and highlighted the ECB’s ...
  • Story Stats