US Flash PMI signals sustained business output growth in January but employment remains little changed

Contacts suggest Yen move more likely MoF hitting the phones and checking rates, rather than outright intervention

Japan’s central bank on Friday raised economic growth forecasts while holding its key policy rate at 0.75% as the country prepares to go into an election. The Bank of Japan upgraded its economic growth forecast for the fiscal year ending in March 2026 to 0.9% from 0.7% in October 2025, and also raised its GDP expansion outlook for the 2026 fiscal year to 1% ...

Japan’s economy is likely to continue growing moderately, with overseas economies returning to a growth path, and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies, supported by factors such as the government’s economic measures and accommodative financial conditions, while the economy is projected to be affected by trade and other policies in each jurisdiction. The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI. all items less fresh food) is likely to decelerate to a level below 2 percent in the first half of this year, with the waning of the effects of the rise in food prices, such as rice prices, and partly due to the effects of government measures to address rising prices. However, it is likely that the mechanism in which wages and prices rise moderately in interaction with each other will be maintained, and that underlying CPI inflation will continue rising moderately. Thereafter, since it is projected that a sense of labor shortage will grow as the economy continues to improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise, it is expected that underlying CPI inflation and the rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) will increase gradually and. in the second half of the projection period, be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target. Breaking | BOJ Highlights Need to Monitor U.S. Economic Factors, Including Tariff Effects on Employment and Corporate Profitability. BOJ: FUTURE DEVELOPMENT IN FOREX, IMPORT PRICES ARE PRICE RISK Just in | Bank of Japan Warns Rising Import Prices May Intensify Household Caution on Spending