Mystery Polymarket traders rake in $630K betting on Maduro’s fall — just hours before US raid | Crypto Craft

  • Mystery Polymarket traders rake in $630K betting on Maduro’s fall — just hours before US raid

    From nypost.com

    Three unnamed Polymarket users made more than $630,000 in less than a day after betting a fraction of the sum that Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro would be forced out of office by the end of the month — a windfall that has stoked suspicions of insider trading. Social media users could not help but notice that three newly created wallets on the prediction market site managed to score large sums of money by placing bets on Maduro’s arrest just hours before he was taken into custody by US special forces late Friday. The most significant wager was placed Friday by someone with the wallet 0x31a5, who put down ... (full story)

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Vancarbon
Jan 5, 2026 1:25pm
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Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} Is this zero-sum? or the site vs betters?

That’s a good question .

I’ll let you decide for yourself :

Polymarket blocked access to U.S. customers from 2022 to December 2, 2025, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. The second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket.

It sounds like a back street , unregulated bookie who makes markets and lays off liability .

Strange how the Trump administration has an affinity for this type of business .
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Nordling
Jan 5, 2026 12:28pm
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I hope they don't get me for going long on Gold last Friday, a day before the operation
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Vancarbon
Jan 5, 2026 12:23pm
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Insider trading within Donald’s circle !

No , never , don’t believe such nonsense .
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DwnUndrTrdr
Jan 5, 2026 3:26pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Insider trading within Donald’s circle ! No , never , don’t believe such nonsense .
As one of poly’s primary functions is information aggregation couldn’t the successful wagers be considered acts of espionage as they could’ve tipped off the operation which was to follow. Kash Patel and the FBI investigating this in an effort to drain the swamp? Or was it just another Heggseth telegram leak?
I must admit I was surprised the whole operation was kept as secret as it was. Notwithstanding the build up etc.
Riziq-Cap
Jan 5, 2026 1:57pm
Permalink
Quoting Vancarbon
{quote} That’s a good question . I’ll let you decide for yourself : Polymarket blocked access to U.S. customers from 2022 to December 2, 2025, following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which accused the company of running an unregistered derivatives-trading platform. The second Donald Trump administration eased the regulatory environment for Polymarket. It sounds like a back street , unregulated bookie who makes markets and lays off liability . Strange how the Trump administration has an affinity for this type of business...
no liability = zero sum with small commission for facilitating.

It is an interesting concept, I assume those behind the site formulates what type of bets are opened, which can help facilitate propaganda/narratives.

I think the market will always be too small to actually impact decisions, at least for now, however this breeds corruption.
Riziq-Cap
Jan 5, 2026 2:36pm
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Pepe Escobar, Brazilian acclaimed journalist. He tend to exaggerate from passion sometime, however, I have personally never heard him lie. At least this makes sense - given that Venezuelan military is on high alert and that Maduro said he was innocent in court today and rejected the allegations - The traitor did not escape though? Stayed behind?

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Vancarbon
Jan 5, 2026 2:39pm
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Quoting Riziq-Cap
{quote} no liability = zero sum with small commission for facilitating. It is an interesting concept, I assume those behind the site formulates what type of bets are opened, which can help facilitate propaganda/narratives. I think the market will always be too small to actually impact decisions, at least for now, however this breeds corruption.
Most market makers look for counter parties to hedge/ reduce liability .

Money- Corruption go hand in glove , goes without saying . What’s interesting is how after 3 years of obscurity and blocked by the CFTC the regulatory rules are loosened only a month ago and here today we have “ insiders “ making bets on the Venezuelan connection .

Hours before the raid !
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Schultz
Jan 5, 2026 11:40pm
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If ya gunna do insider trading, there are a few things that may be done to avoid suspicion.

The three dudes here were amateurs. We don't know about the dozens (?) of others who were in on the game but took precautions - they never make headlines.
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Riziq-Cap
Jan 5, 2026 1:14pm
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Quoting Vancarbon
Insider trading within Donald’s circle ! No , never , don’t believe such nonsense .
Is this zero-sum? or the site vs betters?
Schultz
Jan 6, 2026 8:50am
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My interloops won't allow me to open polymarket. Security issues. Grr.
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Trader#1913
Jan 5, 2026 12:52pm
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Man Damn! I shouldacoulda bet on this! I KNEW this was coming!!!
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Trader#B749
Jan 5, 2026 12:54pm
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Pelosi ???
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