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From Trump trades to Musk tweets and NFL prop bets, a record year for prediction markets sets up a pivotal 2026
Prediction markets had their biggest year on record in 2025, with Polymarket and Kalshi emerging as dominant players amid a surge of investment, media attention, and multi-billion-dollar valuations. With U.S. midterm elections approaching in 2026, an event that could prove to be a massive trading opportunity similar to the presidential race of 2024, the two startups now face a pivotal test: whether they can move beyond hype and prove their value as forecasting tools at scale. Even as interest in prediction markets has gone mainstream, some critics question whether reported trading volumes are overstated, while ... (full story)