Federal Reserve Board announces reappointment of Reserve Bank presidents and first vice presidents

What timing.

Compare two worlds:
1.No announcement, lots of chatter about Trump/Hassett replacing key people and forcing 50bp cuts.
2.This world: all current regional presidents re-upped, Board unanimously approves, terms locked in until 2031.

In the second world:
•The extreme deep-easing scenario (immediate 50bp cuts because the White House wants it) is less plausible.
•The people voting on policy are broadly the same mix who:
•Took rates up,
•Then cut cautiously this year,
•Have been talking about data dependence and inflation risk.

So versus that scary “politically captured Fed” fear, this announcement is hawkish by comparison, or at least less-dovish-than-feared.

But note: it’s hawkish only relative to a tail risk, not relative to the current baseline of “slow easing as data allow”. Strange times we are living in. This particular announcement is timed and feels political to preserve their “independence “

if the last five years are anything to go by then the bubble is forming nicely, the everything rally continues!!!!