Jobless claims tumbled to 3-year low in a no-hire, no-fire U.S. economy

ADP numbers have exactly the same pattern as from 2008., more precisely from March of 2008. when ADP reports started showing that the US economy was starting to lose jobs, however this was 4-5 months after the recession has already been recognized in the US. ADP started showing in June of 2025. that the US economy started losing jobs which would mean that the US economy is already in recession for quite a while.

"The United States was declared to be in a recession by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) on December 1, 2008, and they stated that the recession had begun in December 2007. This period is also known as the Great Recession and lasted until June 2009."

NBER is always late with declaring the recession. Judging by the numbers, real recession began somewhere in the first quarter of 2025. Somewhere in 2026. NBER will confirm just that, but it'll already be too late just like the last time. Fed started QE in November of 2008., a year after the real recession began.

"Markets seem to be betting that quantitative easing (QE) could return as early as the first half of 2026, especially if Kevin Hassett, who has been calling for deeper and faster rate cuts, is ultimately appointed as the next Fed chair." and this would align with what I'm suggesting, that the US economy actually entered recession during the first quarter of 2025.