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Monthly Outlook: Buckle up for 2026
If you think 2025 has been a wild ride, so 2026 ‘will be calmer’ as things revert to mean, then you haven’t understood this year. The global rules-based order is breaking down. Where 2025 saw the demolition of many assumed norms, 2026 will see new rules emerge as US statecraft (economic, political, and military) is flexed to reshape itself and the world around it. After perceiving China’s challenge to its hegemony, US defence, trade, and capital markets are already no longer free. Allies must spend much more on their militaries: the risks are this shift is speeded up, not slowed down. A low (10-15%) tariffed ... (full story)
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