Japan PM Takaichi: Seeking wage gains that are comparable to last year's

"While lower TFs are suggesting further JPY appreciation against other major currencies, higher TFs are very clear that this should be only retracement before we witness another move higher. Both D1 and H4 are very accurately respecting their supports. The probability that the Fed will cut is basically 50/50, just as it is 50/50 whether the BoJ will hike.

I see some weakness however of CHF against JPY. Main support on H4 TF on CHF/JPY is currently 193 which coincides with the main support on D1 which is the between 193 - 192. Up to 192 should be considered a retracement and below 192 should be seen as a potential reversal on CHF/JPY."

To continue on the analysis of CHF/JPY... H4 support has failed, meaning further decline is expected. Now, the focus is on D1 support at around 192.35. If D1 closes below 192.35, then we will focus on W1 support.

One thing I forgot to mention is that the likelihood of SNB cutting rates further and going negative this year is quite high. The market is probably expecting a hold by SNB, but in my opinion this will be yet another miss by the market as the SNB will instead cut rates due to Switzerland already experiencing deflation, unlike other economies. Obvioulsy, the very strong CHF has helped SNB in fight against inflation. Current inflation rate is below their mandate of no inflation 0% - 2%. I think we could be seeing the end of CHF rally very soon, as SNB is going negative.