US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website | Crypto Craft

  • US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website

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Vancarbon
Nov 18, 2025 4:05am
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Here’s an interesting article I was reading last night .

Too much squabbling on here these days and not enough information .

“ We continue to view bank reserves as ample, but the easiest way for the Fed to impact liquidity conditions now is to buy T-bills and thereby coax an increase in bank reserves. It's a blunt means to solving the perception of liquidity tightness though. Far better to fast track the mooted loosening in the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio requirements, thereby allowing the bigger banks to deploy more balance sheet. As it is, the effective funds rate is prone to trading above the rate on excess reserves. This would not technically be an issue. Banks would then switch into the funds rate window to prevent a really material overshoot.

Overall, we view all of this as manageable and not a cause for concern. But it is something that the Fed will choose to address, mostly by buying T-bills in excess of the MBS roll-offs (starting on 1 December). In the meantime, there has been some evidence of a calming in repo in the past 24 hours, which should help, and could help ease the effective funds rate too, if sustained. “


This paragraph is very important and factual

“Beyond the ultra front end, things are far more tranquil Despite the plumbing issues, there's not been a meaningful effect on market rates maturing beyond year-end. And in bonds, the 2yr yield has been a picture of stability, as has the 10yr yield. The 2yr is trading with very little consequence being attached to whether the Fed cuts in December or not, on the theory that the Fed is on a cutting agenda anyway, and will get the funds rate down towards 3% regardless. The theory is, if there is a hold in December, it's only a temporary halt. The persistent richness attached to the 5yr on the curve tells the same story. “
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ffghost
Nov 18, 2025 11:23am
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Quoting Twocans
{quote} We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.
Take Washington out of it for a moment: You really think just because someone has a lot of money they cannot be corrupted by a system (any system) that provides something able to corrupt (money/power/influence/legacy/etc)?

Those with much can be corrupted just as easily as those with little....it's simply a matter of by what means. On top of that, the corruption of those with little is typically "smaller" in impact. It takes a lot less to sway them than it does the bigger fish...so the overall impact is greatly reduced.
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ffghost
Nov 18, 2025 12:33pm
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Quoting Twocans
You don't understand Trump's motivation IMHO. He does not take the salary, never has, and donates ALL of them. The New White House Ballroom is tax free funded by Trump and private donors. Who takes a bullet or court battles for all the headaches dealt over the years when he could do just about anything else aside from the FACT that the OFFICE has literally cost him financially. All his offspring are way above 'normal' and super ambitious. He's not perfect but he does love the USA. Something the Democrats and many Republicans have not shown in many...
I don't think he's president for the money. I would be more inclined to think he's president for the ego/legacy. But even that could be debated. His "love for country" can be argued for/against as well depending on what each person's individual belief is regarding what "makes America great". Some would say he "hates" the values of this nation. Others look at the same data and say he "loves" it. I guess people look at price action the same polarized way...go figure.

Regarding financials, however......

I have heard the "doesn't take a salary" argument before as well. Great. But, Trump is a media guy. He is a brand. He knows it. Being in the media = profit. There's no larger media platform than POTUS. Now, it won't always be positive, but it wasn't for him before taking the oath of office either.

To suggest being in office has cost him financially might need some qualifying on your end before I'll give you credit for that one...the simple injection of capital into all things backed by/owned by Trump by his supporters is greater than his net worth prior to entering the office. That doesn't include the "residuals" post-presidency (not tax payer related, but due to the impact during his terms).

No figures are going to give accurate results. Some say the presidency nets him $3billion/year. Some less, some more. The simple fact is that the $400k/year presidential salary is likely less than he would have spent on social media promotion for his brands (were he not in the office) .... and he gets way more value than that being in office.

Whatever the case, however, he's a president. He has a few more years in office, then there's the next guy/gal. Markets care in the short term, but rarely does a president have the ability to impact prices longer than he is in office. For day to day trading, the man gives volatility to the markets, so people can't dislike that....unless, like me, you trade highly levered and uni-directional using futures. Then, a tweet (or foam board of death) can make/break an entire year of effort...but that's MY fault, not [necessarily] his ;-P
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wizzytech100
Nov 18, 2025 4:00am
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Quoting ffghost
Interesting release time US government Tried to bury this one it seems...
They can't bury the last 5min bar candle before the hour closes
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ffghost
Nov 18, 2025 3:01am
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Interesting release time US government

Tried to bury this one it seems...
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The Fool
Nov 18, 2025 1:40pm
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Quoting Twocans
{quote} We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.
I would go further and say political parties should be banned. Country, not Party. George Washington warned against factions:

AI Overview
George Washington warned that political parties were a danger to national unity and could be used by ambitious individuals to gain power and undermine the government. In his 1796 Farewell Address, he cautioned that the "spirit of party" could distract public councils, weaken government administration, and lead to a "spirit of revenge" where party interests outweigh the common good. He also warned that partisan divisions could make the country more vulnerable to foreign influence and corruption.
Threat to national unity: Washington believed that political parties would create animosity, divide the nation, and cause people to prioritize party loyalty over their shared American identity.
Subversion of government: He feared that parties would become "potent engines" for "cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men" to seize control of the government, ultimately destroying the very power that lifted them to office.
Foreign influence: Washington argued that partisan passions would "open the door to foreign influence and corruption," making the nation susceptible to manipulation by other powers.
Misplaced priorities: He believed that party members might not govern for the good of the people but instead would focus on gaining and maintaining power.

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/...o-usurp-for-th
The Fool
Nov 18, 2025 1:48pm
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All eyes on NVDA earnings out tomorrow after hours. Everything looks like btfd and blowout earnings could pull the indices up 1-2% or more to close the week. But, markets have been expressing well-deserved skepticism about the AI fantasies, and a shitty report from NVDA could tank them again.

Love the binary trades....
Twocans
Nov 18, 2025 11:18am
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Quoting Trader#5C3E
{quote} lol so you think one US political party is honest?
We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.
Twocans
Nov 18, 2025 11:51am — Edited
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You don't understand Trump's motivation IMHO. He does not take the salary, never has, and donates ALL of them. The New White House Ballroom is tax free funded by Trump and private donors. Who takes a bullet or court battles for all the headaches dealt over the years when he could do just about anything else aside from the FACT that the OFFICE has literally cost him financially. All his offspring are way above 'normal' and super ambitious. He's not perfect but he does love the USA. Something the Democrats and many Republicans have not shown in many ways over the years since his inter view with Oprah USD/CAD is screaming 'bloody murder' as big money flogs investors.
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Trader#E1B7
Nov 18, 2025 4:10am
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NASDAQ is now at bearish which is at a downtrend with lower high and lower lows with sellers creating the selling hype. Liquidity sweeps are approaching preparing for bullish to occur and buy at the bottom at a lower price while the price rises ...
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The Fool
Nov 18, 2025 1:36pm
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Quoting Trader#7FAC
Who is Bubba ? ? ? Run Forrest.... RUN ! ! !
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Vancarbon
Nov 18, 2025 1:22pm
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Never thought I’d correlate Trump and Altruism .

Patriotism…. mmmmm debatable.

Legacy….. for sure , with a touch of egotistical arrogance thrown in
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LightchaserG
Nov 18, 2025 4:04am
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Those numbers do not make sense! There are many more missing.
I'm sure they are hiding a much worse numbers (Sep/Oct was major layoffs going on)
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LightchaserG
Nov 18, 2025 5:18am
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Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only.
Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p
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pamc
Nov 18, 2025 3:31am
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slowing down processing etc etc .
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Twocans
Nov 18, 2025 11:11am
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USD/CAD Looks oversold on panic this morning back down to key support level
Twocans
Nov 18, 2025 1:11pm
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USD?CAD At the 800 whole number area just finished HH and HL and is under slight pullback below/at 1.39-800 and looking like Bulls may start stepping up to the plate... or down in this case.
BaliBoyz80
Nov 18, 2025 3:41am
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No rate cut this year
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NukeTrading
Nov 18, 2025 6:14am
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Everyone saying Nasdaq and gold flying. One is risk off and the other risk on. Nasdaq being hammered on the intraday.
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patientpan
Nov 18, 2025 3:07am
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Quoting ffghost
Interesting release time US government Tried to bury this one it seems...
They are hiding a lot, maybe they are afraid of what gonna happen
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patientpan
Nov 18, 2025 2:47am
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This is not a low impact news. Nasdaq and Gold are flying…
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rashpal25
Nov 18, 2025 3:13am
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This is not a medium impact news. Nasdaq and Gold are flying....
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Trader#E14A
Nov 18, 2025 4:22am
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232k vs 218k is only a mild miss and still sits inside this year’s 205–264k range. That’s not weak enough to force an immediate cut.

Continuing claims ~1.96M = cooling, but not a break. Hawks can say, “trend is softening, but not urgent—let’s see more data after the shutdown gaps.”

Mixed activity signals (regional manufacturing beat, first positive construction print in months) let hawks argue the real economy isn’t rolling over.

The September jobs report is backward-looking; hawks can justify waiting until they see a few clean releases (claims trend, payrolls, CPI/PCE) before adding more easing.

What the doves say (for balance):

Claims and continueds have drifted up vs the YTD mean, IUR ~1.3%, and Waller/Jefferson are openly flagging labor slack and “proceed slowly” → a cut is reasonable insurance.

Net: Today’s claims tilt the debate toward “hold vs cut,” not toward a hike. It boosts the argument for a pause in December unless the next few prints clearly soften.
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Trader#02A5
Nov 18, 2025 5:33am
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Quoting LightchaserG
Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p
dummy there isn’t going to be a cut in Dec, face reality, the narrative Powell built coming off the last FOMC, the data shocks happening now, major split in the fed, 2 cuts back to back and a shutdown blackout period the fed will be cautious- data points to wait and see
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Trader#02A5
Nov 18, 2025 5:33am
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Quoting Trader#E14A
232k vs 218k is only a mild miss and still sits inside this year’s 205–264k range. That’s not weak enough to force an immediate cut. Continuing claims ~1.96M = cooling, but not a break. Hawks can say, “trend is softening, but not urgent—let’s see more data after the shutdown gaps.” Mixed activity signals (regional manufacturing beat, first positive construction print in months) let hawks argue the real economy isn’t rolling over. The September jobs report is backward-looking; hawks can justify waiting until they see a few clean releases (claims...
makes sense
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Trader#5C3E
Nov 18, 2025 6:42am
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Quoting LightchaserG
Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p
lol so you think one US political party is honest?
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Trader#5C3E
Nov 18, 2025 6:45am
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Quoting LightchaserG
Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p
your bias is your Achilles heel lightboy
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Trader#5C3E
Nov 18, 2025 6:54am
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Quoting LightchaserG
Those numbers do not make sense! There are many more missing. I'm sure they are hiding a much worse numbers (Sep/Oct was major layoffs going on)
Your bias is laughable, the most egregious "cooking of the books" was the administration before. There is no such thing as honest government, so just stop with the one sided BS and simply search for the truth without Bias. You are only sabotaging yourself.
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Anzalufuno
Nov 20, 2025 12:59am
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Lot of talk here n not so many information sharing.
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Trader#E14A
Nov 18, 2025 2:41am
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surprising, im sure market expected much more than that. Bullish DXY
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Trader#0ECB
Nov 18, 2025 2:42am
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Low impact, nasdaq and gold flying
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Trader#A306
Nov 18, 2025 4:40am
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Many jobs will be lost after the Epstein files fully surface.
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Trader#7FAC
Nov 18, 2025 12:38pm
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Who is Bubba ? ? ?

Run Forrest.... RUN ! ! !
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