US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website | Crypto Craft

US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website | Crypto Craft

US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website

FinancialJuice @financialjuice
US jobless claims at 232k in Oct. 18th week - Government website Nov 18, 2025 12:20am

Comments / Top
Subscribe

Nov 18, 2025 2:05am

Here’s an interesting article I was reading last night .

Too much squabbling on here these days and not enough information .

“ We continue to view bank reserves as ample, but the easiest way for the Fed to impact liquidity conditions now is to buy T-bills and thereby coax an increase in bank reserves. It's a blunt means to solving the perception of liquidity tightness though. Far better to fast track the mooted loosening in the Supplementary Liquidity Ratio requirements, thereby allowing the bigger banks to deploy more balance sheet. As it is, the effective funds rate is prone to trading above the rate on excess reserves. This would not technically be an issue. Banks would then switch into the funds rate window to prevent a really material overshoot.

Overall, we view all of this as manageable and not a cause for concern. But it is something that the Fed will choose to address, mostly by buying T-bills in excess of the MBS roll-offs (starting on 1 December). In the meantime, there has been some evidence of a calming in repo in the past 24 hours, which should help, and could help ease the effective funds rate too, if sustained. “

This paragraph is very important and factual

“Beyond the ultra front end, things are far more tranquil Despite the plumbing issues, there's not been a meaningful effect on market rates maturing beyond year-end. And in bonds, the 2yr yield has been a picture of stability, as has the 10yr yield. The 2yr is trading with very little consequence being attached to whether the Fed cuts in December or not, on the theory that the Fed is on a cutting agenda anyway, and will get the funds rate down towards 3% regardless. The theory is, if there is a hold in December, it's only a temporary halt. The persistent richness attached to the 5yr on the curve tells the same story. “

1

Nov 18, 2025 9:23am

Quoting Twocans

Disliked

{quote} We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.

Ignored

Take Washington out of it for a moment: You really think just because someone has a lot of money they cannot be corrupted by a system (any system) that provides something able to corrupt (money/power/influence/legacy/etc)?

Those with much can be corrupted just as easily as those with little....it's simply a matter of by what means. On top of that, the corruption of those with little is typically "smaller" in impact. It takes a lot less to sway them than it does the bigger fish...so the overall impact is greatly reduced.

1

Nov 18, 2025 10:33am

Quoting Twocans

Disliked

You don't understand Trump's motivation IMHO. He does not take the salary, never has, and donates ALL of them. The New White House Ballroom is tax free funded by Trump and private donors. Who takes a bullet or court battles for all the headaches dealt over the years when he could do just about anything else aside from the FACT that the OFFICE has literally cost him financially. All his offspring are way above 'normal' and super ambitious. He's not perfect but he does love the USA. Something the Democrats and many Republicans have not shown in many...

Ignored

I don't think he's president for the money. I would be more inclined to think he's president for the ego/legacy. But even that could be debated. His "love for country" can be argued for/against as well depending on what each person's individual belief is regarding what "makes America great". Some would say he "hates" the values of this nation. Others look at the same data and say he "loves" it. I guess people look at price action the same polarized way...go figure.

Regarding financials, however......

I have heard the "doesn't take a salary" argument before as well. Great. But, Trump is a media guy. He is a brand. He knows it. Being in the media = profit. There's no larger media platform than POTUS. Now, it won't always be positive, but it wasn't for him before taking the oath of office either.

To suggest being in office has cost him financially might need some qualifying on your end before I'll give you credit for that one...the simple injection of capital into all things backed by/owned by Trump by his supporters is greater than his net worth prior to entering the office. That doesn't include the "residuals" post-presidency (not tax payer related, but due to the impact during his terms).

No figures are going to give accurate results. Some say the presidency nets him $3billion/year. Some less, some more. The simple fact is that the $400k/year presidential salary is likely less than he would have spent on social media promotion for his brands (were he not in the office) .... and he gets way more value than that being in office.

Whatever the case, however, he's a president. He has a few more years in office, then there's the next guy/gal. Markets care in the short term, but rarely does a president have the ability to impact prices longer than he is in office. For day to day trading, the man gives volatility to the markets, so people can't dislike that....unless, like me, you trade highly levered and uni-directional using futures. Then, a tweet (or foam board of death) can make/break an entire year of effort...but that's MY fault, not [necessarily] his ;-P

1

Nov 18, 2025 2:00am

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

Interesting release time US government Tried to bury this one it seems...

Ignored

They can't bury the last 5min bar candle before the hour closes

1

Nov 18, 2025 1:01am

Interesting release time US government

Tried to bury this one it seems...

1

Nov 18, 2025 11:40am

Quoting Twocans

Disliked

{quote} We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.

Ignored

I would go further and say political parties should be banned. Country, not Party. George Washington warned against factions:

AI Overview
George Washington warned that political parties were a danger to national unity and could be used by ambitious individuals to gain power and undermine the government. In his 1796 Farewell Address, he cautioned that the "spirit of party" could distract public councils, weaken government administration, and lead to a "spirit of revenge" where party interests outweigh the common good. He also warned that partisan divisions could make the country more vulnerable to foreign influence and corruption.
Threat to national unity: Washington believed that political parties would create animosity, divide the nation, and cause people to prioritize party loyalty over their shared American identity.
Subversion of government: He feared that parties would become "potent engines" for "cunning, ambitious, and unprincipled men" to seize control of the government, ultimately destroying the very power that lifted them to office.
Foreign influence: Washington argued that partisan passions would "open the door to foreign influence and corruption," making the nation susceptible to manipulation by other powers.
Misplaced priorities: He believed that party members might not govern for the good of the people but instead would focus on gaining and maintaining power.

https://www.mountvernon.org/library/...o-usurp-for-th

Nov 18, 2025 11:48am

All eyes on NVDA earnings out tomorrow after hours. Everything looks like btfd and blowout earnings could pull the indices up 1-2% or more to close the week. But, markets have been expressing well-deserved skepticism about the AI fantasies, and a shitty report from NVDA could tank them again.

Love the binary trades....

Nov 18, 2025 9:18am

Quoting Trader#5C3E

Disliked

{quote} lol so you think one US political party is honest?

Ignored

We need Term Limits for ALL of the Washington cesspool members to prevent them from having time to build 'nests' over time to line their pockets. Washington corrupts all of them over time. The only one it can't is Trump because he doesn't need the money.

Nov 18, 2025 9:51am — Edited

You don't understand Trump's motivation IMHO. He does not take the salary, never has, and donates ALL of them. The New White House Ballroom is tax free funded by Trump and private donors. Who takes a bullet or court battles for all the headaches dealt over the years when he could do just about anything else aside from the FACT that the OFFICE has literally cost him financially. All his offspring are way above 'normal' and super ambitious. He's not perfect but he does love the USA. Something the Democrats and many Republicans have not shown in many ways over the years since his inter view with Oprah USD/CAD is screaming 'bloody murder' as big money flogs investors.

Inserted Video

Trader#E1B7

Nov 18, 2025 2:10am

NASDAQ is now at bearish which is at a downtrend with lower high and lower lows with sellers creating the selling hype. Liquidity sweeps are approaching preparing for bullish to occur and buy at the bottom at a lower price while the price rises ...

1

Nov 18, 2025 11:36am

Quoting Trader#7FAC

Disliked

Who is Bubba ? ? ? Run Forrest.... RUN ! ! !

Ignored

Inserted Video

Nov 18, 2025 11:22am

Never thought I’d correlate Trump and Altruism .

Patriotism…. mmmmm debatable.

Legacy….. for sure , with a touch of egotistical arrogance thrown in

Nov 18, 2025 2:04am

Those numbers do not make sense! There are many more missing.
I'm sure they are hiding a much worse numbers (Sep/Oct was major layoffs going on)

Nov 18, 2025 3:18am

Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only.
Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p

Nov 18, 2025 1:31am

slowing down processing etc etc .

Nov 18, 2025 9:11am

USD/CAD Looks oversold on panic this morning back down to key support level

Nov 18, 2025 11:11am

USD?CAD At the 800 whole number area just finished HH and HL and is under slight pullback below/at 1.39-800 and looking like Bulls may start stepping up to the plate... or down in this case.

Nov 18, 2025 1:41am

No rate cut this year

Nov 18, 2025 4:14am

Everyone saying Nasdaq and gold flying. One is risk off and the other risk on. Nasdaq being hammered on the intraday.

Nov 18, 2025 1:07am

Quoting ffghost

Disliked

Interesting release time US government Tried to bury this one it seems...

Ignored

They are hiding a lot, maybe they are afraid of what gonna happen

Nov 18, 2025 12:47am

This is not a low impact news. Nasdaq and Gold are flying…

Nov 18, 2025 1:13am

This is not a medium impact news. Nasdaq and Gold are flying....

Trader#E14A

Nov 18, 2025 2:22am

232k vs 218k is only a mild miss and still sits inside this year’s 205–264k range. That’s not weak enough to force an immediate cut.

Continuing claims ~1.96M = cooling, but not a break. Hawks can say, “trend is softening, but not urgent—let’s see more data after the shutdown gaps.”

Mixed activity signals (regional manufacturing beat, first positive construction print in months) let hawks argue the real economy isn’t rolling over.

The September jobs report is backward-looking; hawks can justify waiting until they see a few clean releases (claims trend, payrolls, CPI/PCE) before adding more easing.

What the doves say (for balance):

Claims and continueds have drifted up vs the YTD mean, IUR ~1.3%, and Waller/Jefferson are openly flagging labor slack and “proceed slowly” → a cut is reasonable insurance.

Net: Today’s claims tilt the debate toward “hold vs cut,” not toward a hike. It boosts the argument for a pause in December unless the next few prints clearly soften.

Trader#02A5

Nov 18, 2025 3:33am

Quoting LightchaserG

Disliked

Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p

Ignored

dummy there isn’t going to be a cut in Dec, face reality, the narrative Powell built coming off the last FOMC, the data shocks happening now, major split in the fed, 2 cuts back to back and a shutdown blackout period the fed will be cautious- data points to wait and see

Trader#02A5

Nov 18, 2025 3:33am

Quoting Trader#E14A

Disliked

232k vs 218k is only a mild miss and still sits inside this year’s 205–264k range. That’s not weak enough to force an immediate cut. Continuing claims ~1.96M = cooling, but not a break. Hawks can say, “trend is softening, but not urgent—let’s see more data after the shutdown gaps.” Mixed activity signals (regional manufacturing beat, first positive construction print in months) let hawks argue the real economy isn’t rolling over. The September jobs report is backward-looking; hawks can justify waiting until they see a few clean releases (claims...

Ignored

makes sense

Trader#5C3E

Nov 18, 2025 4:42am

Quoting LightchaserG

Disliked

Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p

Ignored

lol so you think one US political party is honest?

Trader#5C3E

Nov 18, 2025 4:45am

Quoting LightchaserG

Disliked

Imo the numbers are being manipulated for\towards the Fed to be confused and CUT...imo only. Its TACO administration we're talking about here. :-p

Ignored

your bias is your Achilles heel lightboy

Trader#5C3E

Nov 18, 2025 4:54am

Quoting LightchaserG

Disliked

Those numbers do not make sense! There are many more missing. I'm sure they are hiding a much worse numbers (Sep/Oct was major layoffs going on)

Ignored

Your bias is laughable, the most egregious "cooking of the books" was the administration before. There is no such thing as honest government, so just stop with the one sided BS and simply search for the truth without Bias. You are only sabotaging yourself.

Nov 19, 2025 10:59pm

Lot of talk here n not so many information sharing.

Trader#E14A

Nov 18, 2025 12:41am

surprising, im sure market expected much more than that. Bullish DXY

Trader#0ECB

Nov 18, 2025 12:42am

Low impact

, nasdaq and gold flying

Trader#A306

Nov 18, 2025 2:40am

Many jobs will be lost after the Epstein files fully surface.

Trader#7FAC

Nov 18, 2025 10:38am

Who is Bubba ? ? ?

Run Forrest.... RUN ! ! !

Related Stories

US Jobless Claims Total 232,000 in Week Ended Oct. 18

From msn.com | Nov 18, 2025

Initial jobless claims totaled 232,000 in the week ended Oct. 18, according to US Labor Department website showing historical data for claims. Continuing claims, a proxy for the number of people receiving benefits, came in at 1.957 million, up slightly from 1.947 million in the prior week. For initial claims, weekly data for the previous three weeks weren’t ...

Trump: Because of tariffs, chip makers are coming back to the US

From @financialjuice | Nov 17, 2025 | 39 comments

Trump: Because of tariffs, chip makers are coming back to the US. TRUMP: WE FOOLISHLY LOST THE CHIP MARKET TO TAIWAN TRUMP: EXPECTS TO ISSUE TARIFF-BASED DIVIDENDS TO AMERICANS BY MID-2026

Trump: We want 1% inflation — and we’re going to get it a little lower

From @FirstSquawk | Nov 17, 2025 | 27 comments

TRUMP: WE WANT 1% INFLATION — AND WE’RE GOING TO GET IT A LITTLE LOWER.

More

Story Stats

Nov 18, 2025 12:22am
Posted by
Newsstand

Low Impact Breaking

33

14.3K
Linked events:

US Unemployment Claims