Fed's Miran: Better-than-expected ADP data was a welcome surprise

Well, too bad there will be no NFP, which might have captured a more robust view of labor conditions. Probably we will have an end to the shutdown this month, and a messy lookback in the Dec NFP. There should be a noticeable tick down in Federal jobs in the next full NFP, as >150,000 took the Musk deferred resignation deal and their last paycheck (for most of them) was early October. There have been lots of other resignations and early retirements in the Federal ranks, also.

Trump speaking in a few, and already whining about Democrats wins in last night's elections. I expect at least a few days of Trump whining and blaming. The thing not on the FF news today is the SCOTUS hearing arguments in the tariffs case. They don't decide until much later, but already I am hearing the Justices have been quite skeptical about the government's arguments. Sometimes, at the end of the day, the news will have audio excerpts of Justices' questions and commentary.

What I am not so sure about is the market reaction. If it seems Trump's IEEPA tariffs are going to be cancelled, that means the govt will have to pay back $130 billion in revenue already collected. If US Business was polled what they would like - Trump's tariffs or the way things were b4 he took office, I guarantee you nearly 100% would be anti tariff. But a SCOTUS ruling against the IEEPA tariffs just throws things into more uncertainty, as Trump 2.0 will just try to find any work arounds. Anyway, maybe there will not be enough info out today for markets to notice one way or the other...

Most of my projections aren't that different from others.

This "others" entity that you speak of - are they of this world?

You have said before that you "see" certain things happening, like the future. Now you see the labour market? That is so very cool.

maybe for u

Mamadani - the new New York mayor is the reason for that.