Underpriced geopolitical and cyber risks put Gold and Crypto in focus

Pending home sales in September showed no change from the prior month and fell 0.9% year over year, according to the National Association of REALTORS® Pending Home Sales Report. ...

Good morning. I’m pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss today’s monetary policy decision. Today, the Bank lowered the policy interest rate a further 25 basis points, bringing it to 2¼%. This was our second straight cut, and reflects ongoing weakness in the economy and contained inflationary pressures. Today we also published our outlook for the Canadian economy. We have four main messages. First, US tariffs and trade uncertainty have weakened the Canadian economy. We expect very modest growth through the rest of the year, with some pickup in 2026. Second, while this weakness is restraining price increases, the trade conflict is also adding costs for many businesses, putting upward pressure on inflation. We expect these opposing forces to roughly offset, keeping inflation close to the 2% target. Third, to support the economy through this period of adjustment, we have lowered our policy rate by 50 basis points over our last two meetings and by 100 basis points since the start of the year. And finally, the weakness we’re seeing in the Canadian economy is more than a cyclical downturn. It is also a structural transition. The US trade conflict has diminished Canada’s economic prospects. The structural damage caused by tariffs is reducing our productive capacity and adding costs. This limits the ability of monetary policy to boost demand while maintaining low inflation. For the first time since January and the start of the trade conflict, the Bank is publishing a baseline outlook for economic growth and inflation, rather than alternative scenarios. It has now been more than six months since we have been living with US tariffs. And while US trade policy remains unpredictable, its impacts are becoming clearer. Let me expand on what we’re seeing in the economy, and how that played into our deliberations. While the global economy has been resilient to the rise in US tariffs and increased uncertainty, the impacts are becoming more evident. Trade relationships are being reconfigured and uncertainty is dampening investment in many countries. In Canada, the impacts of US trade policy are already clearly apparent. GDP contracted 1.6% in the second quarter as tariffs and uncertainty reduced exports and business investment. US trade actions are having severe BoC's Gov. Macklem: There continues to be considerable uncertainty about US tariffs and their impacts. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Range of possible outcomes is wider than usual; we need to be humble about our forecast. BoC's Gov. Macklem: We expect opposing forces on inflation to roughly offset each other, keeping the overall rate close to 2%. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Monetary policy has limited ability to boost demand while maintaining low inflation, given the damage tariffs are doing to Canada's economic prospects.

BoC's Gov. Macklem: Monetary policy is providing some stimulus. BoC's Gov. Macklem: Job is never done, sees elevated uncertainty. The most-interesting comment from Macklem when he corrected himself. He said "if the outlook changes, then," he then paused and said "if the outlook changes materially, then we're prepared to respond." pic.twitter.com/tYnqJU9gl3 BOC'S MACKLEM: WE EXPECT THE PACE OF CONSUMPTION GROWTH TO MODERATE BoC's Gov. Macklem: A material change to our outlook would not just be one month of data.