October 2025 US Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

FED'S BARKIN States US Companies Are Not Hiring Or Firing, Maintaining Steady Employment Levels Fed’s Barkin: Clear That Businesses Are Planning To Pass Along What Tariffs They Can - Labour Demand, Supply Shrinking At Same Rate FED'S BARKIN SAYS PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH 'IMPROVING SIGNIFICANTLY' Federal Reserve Member Barkin says the Fed is observing much less data and is trying to navigate based on limited information.

Fed's Waller: Fed interview process is going well, had a great interview for chair - BBG television Fed's Waller: Cutting rates again is the right thing to do; not much has changed in the past six weeks Fed’s Waller: Can’t Have Strong, Growing Economy And Zero Job Growth - We Can Cut 25Bps, See What Happens, Get Better Idea - Tariff Uncertainty And AI Have Put Firms On Back Foot - CEO’s Reluctant To Hire Fed’s Waller: Financial Markets Are A Puzzle - Theses Aren’t Loose Financial Conditions For Households - Business Investment Concentrated In AI WALLER: MY JOB IS ABOUT THE LABOR MARKET, AND IT'S NOT GOOD

Thank you, Tom, and thank you to the Council on Foreign Relations for the opportunity to speak to you today. Since the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) last meeting on September 16 and 17, economic data have tended to support my view of a labor market that is softening and inflation—absent temporary tariff effects—that is running fairly close to the FOMC's 2 percent target. Based on what I know today, I support continued easing of monetary policy from its current setting, which I judge is moderately restricting aggregate demand and economic activity. But I also see a conflict right now between data showing solid growth in economic activity and data showing a softening labor market.2 So, something's gotta give—either economic growth softens to match a soft labor market, or the labor market rebounds to match stronger economic growth. Since we don't know which way the data will break on this conflict, we need to move with care when adjusting the policy rate to ensure we don't make a mistake that will be costly to correct. I believe that how that process plays out in the coming months will have a significant impact on the path of monetary policy. FED'S WALLER BACKS OCTOBER RATE CUT IN THURSDAY SPEECH IN NEW YORK FED'S WALLER: GOVT FREEZE COULD LOWER 4Q GDP 'SEVERAL TENTHS OF A PERCENTAGE POINT' FED’S WALLER: IF JOB MARKET CONTINUES TO WEAKEN, FED SHOULD CUT TOWARD NEUTRAL RATE || NEUTRAL INTEREST RATE IS ABOUT 100 TO 125 BASIS POINTS LOWER THAN CURRENT FED FUNDS RATE Fed's Waller: Rate outlook post-October hinges on labor market data