-
Prediction markets see US government shutdown lasting nearly two weeks
Traders in prediction markets are betting that the U.S. government shutdown could drag on for nearly two weeks, with odds rising that Congress will not reach a deal until at least mid-October. On Kalshi, a federally regulated prediction market, the current forecast implies the stoppage will last 11.1 days, up sharply in recent days as negotiations on Capitol Hill have stalled. On Polymarket, traders see the highest likelihood that the government won’t reopen until Oct. 15 or later, with that outcome carrying about a 38% probability. By comparison, odds of a resolution in the Oct. 6-9 window stand at 23%, while Oct. ... (full story)
- Comments / Top
- Subscribe
-
- Older Stories
From raymondjames.com|Oct 1, 2025Shutdowns typically do not make sizeable impacts on the markets or the economy, though the potential for a lengthy political impasse bears monitoring. The United States federal ...
From leaprate.com|Oct 1, 2025IG Group has secured a cryptoasset licence from the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA), becoming the first UK-listed company to join the regulator’s cryptoasset register. The move ...
From prnewswire.com|Oct 1, 2025|68 commentsPrivate sector employment shed 32,000 jobs in September and pay was up 4.5 percent year-over-year according to the September ADP National Employment Report® produced by ADP Research in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab ("Stanford Lab"). The ADP National Employment Report is an independent measure of the labor market based on the anonymized weekly payroll data of more than 26 million private-sector employees in the United States. ADP's Pay Insights captures nearly 14.8 million individual pay change observations each month. Together, the jobs report and pay insights use ADP's fine-grained data to provide a representative and high-frequency picture of the private-sector labor market. *(US) SEPT ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: -32K V +51KE; Includes preliminary rebenchmarking of the National Employment Report; Notes U.S. employers have been cautious with hiring - Prior revised lower from +54K to -3K (More at )
Private payrolls declined in September by 32,000 in key ADP report coming amid shutdown data blackout Private payrolls saw their biggest decline in two-and-a-half years during September, a further sign of labor market weakening that compounds the data blackout accompanying the U.S. government shutdown. Companies shed a seasonally adjusted 32,000 jobs during the month, the biggest slide since March 2023, payrolls processing firm ADP reported Wednesday. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for an increase of 45,000. In addition to the drop in September, the August payrolls number was revised to a loss of 3,000 from an initially reported increase of 54,000. The report comes as the funding impasse in Washington, D.C. has led to the first government closure since late 2018 int
-
- Newer Stories
From prnewswire.com|Oct 1, 2025|16 commentsEconomic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in September for the seventh consecutive month, following a two-month expansion preceded by 26 straight months of contraction, say the nation's supply executives in the latest ISM® Manufacturing PMI® Report. The report was issued today by Susan Spence, MBA, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee. "The Manufacturing PMI® registered 49.1 percent in September, a 0.4-percentage point increase compared to the reading of 48.7 percent recorded in August. The overall economy continued in expansion for the 65th month after one month of contraction in April 2020. (A Manufacturing PMI® above 42.3 percent, over a period of time, generally indicates an expansion of the overall economy.) The New Orders Index contracted in September following one month of growth; the figure of 48.9 percent is 2.5 percentage points lower than the 51.4 percent recorded in August. The September reading of the Production Index (51 percent) is 3.2 percentage points higher than August's figure of 47.8 percent. The Prices Index remained in expansion (or 'increasing' territory), registering 61.9 percent, down 1.8 percentage points compared to the reading of 63.7 percent reported in August. The Backlog of Orders Index registered 46.2 percent, up 1.5 percentage points compared to the 44.7 percent recorded in August. The Employment Index registered 45.3 percent, up 1.5 percentage points from August's figure of 43.8 percent. ISM Mfg 49.1, Exp. 49.0, Last 48.7 Prices Paid 61.9, Exp. 62.7, Last 63.7 New Orders 48.9, Exp. 50.0, Last 51.4 Employment 45.3, Exp. 44.3, Last 43.8
From cointelegraph.com|Oct 1, 2025Bitcoin whipsawed through September, but managed to close the month 5% higher at $114,000 on Tuesday. Several key indicators now suggest that the recent recovery from $108,000 ...
From @NourHammoury|Oct 1, 2025|88 comments*SUPREME COURT REFUSES TO LET TRUMP IMMEDIATELY OUST FED'S COOK baaaam The US Supreme Court is to hear arguments over Trump's bid to remove Federal Reserve Governor Cook.
Supreme Court allows the Fed's Lisa Cook to stay in office for now as Trump pushes to fire her The Supreme Court on Wednesday deferred action on whether President Donald Trump can immediately fire Federal Reserve board member Lisa Cook, instead agreeing to hear oral arguments in the case early next year. The move means that Cook can remain in office while the consequential legal question is decided. The court will hear oral arguments in January, the brief order said, with a ruling likely before the end of June. Trump had asked the court to allow him to immediately fire Cook while litigation continued in lower courts. Under the Federal Reserve Act, presidents are restricted from removing governors unless it is “for cause,” meaning there is evidence of wrongdoing. Trump has said he fired Cook for cause, over allegations of mortgage fraud made by one of his political appointees, Federal Housing Finance Agency Director Bill Pulte. Cook has denied the allegations, and bank documents obtained by NBC News appear to contradict the fraud claim. Since taking office in January, Trump has pushed for lower interest rates and had criticized the Fed for failing to act on his wishes. While the president's aggressive use of executive power has often led to setbacks in lower courts, the Supreme Court has regularly granted the administration's emergency requests that allow his policies to move forward.
