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Weekly Macro and Policy Wrap-Up
United States: Housing is finally showing signs of life. New home sales jumped 20.5% in August to an annualized 800k pace, the strongest since early 2022. Builders cut prices and offered incentives, which pulled demand forward and tightened supply to 6.8 months. Existing home sales, by contrast, stayed flat close to 4.00 million, with supply at 4.6 months, holding prices up modestly. The affordability index, however, remains quite weak. Normally, when affordability collapses, house prices fall as demand dries up. But today the U.S. market is structurally short of supply, most serious studies (Brookings, Harvard JCHS, ... (full story)
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This, in turn, has pushed the USD Index (DXY) to 98.60, where better sellers have emerged at the August range highs and the 100-day MA. Those long of USDs will want to see a daily close above 98.80 and below 1.1660 (EURUSD) to see technical momentum build, but that will likely require rates traders to reprice/reduce expectations for a Fed cut in the October ...
From thecurrencyblog.com | Sep 28, 2025
As we close out September and step into October, markets are preparing for another month filled with volatility. Interest rate cuts remain firmly on the agenda, economic data is stacked throughout the calendar, and the possibility of a U.S. government shutdown could set the tone for the weeks ahead. The big focus early this week is in Washington. If ...
US government shutdowns have become so common in recent decades that every federal agency has a playbook for how to implement them. But the Trump administration is quickly rewriting those plans in advance of the end of the fiscal year next Tuesday, making a potential shutdown even more unpredictable — and potentially disruptive — than any other in memory. ...
