The signals on inflation have been confusing to say the least. Tariffs did push up inflation, but that impulse peaked in June and has faded rapidly since then. Yet core inflation - whether you look at the CPI or PCE - is running ahead of where it’s been in recent years, so something is clearly going on. From a policy perspective, the question is whether high inflation reflects a few idiosyncratic factors or whether it’s a broader-based phenomenon. That’s what I look at in today’s post. The evidence points clearly in the direction of a broad pick-up in inflation. {charts} The left chart calculates the combined weight ... (full story)