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US Core PCE – What To Expect – 26.9.25
On Friday, 26 September 2025 at 13:30 UK time, the BEA releases the August personal income and outlays report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and the cleanest read on consumer momentum. Our base case is Core PCE +0.2% m/m, Personal Income +0.3% m/m, and Personal Spending +0.6% m/m. This view reflects the August CPI–to–PCE translation (lighter shelter weight in PCE, mixed airfare/medical dynamics), the drag from weaker PPI trade margins on goods prices, steady but unspectacular labor-income growth, and firm nominal spending signals from retail sales/control. The aim here is to frame where consensus may be ... (full story)
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From @Top_Bloomberg|Sep 25, 2025|13 comments*FED'S BOWMAN SAYS LABOR MARKET MORE FRAGILE THAN EXPECTED *BOWMAN SAYS FED IS WITHIN RANGE OF FED 2% INFLATION TARGET *BOWMAN SAYS APPROPRIATE TO SHIFT TO JOBS INSTEAD OF INFLATION BOWMAN SAYS TARIFFS WILL HAVE ONE-TIME PRICE IMPACT - Fed's Bowman indicates foreign suppliers are absorbing some tariff costs - This could influence trade dynamics and pricing strategies - Market watchers should keep an eye on the implications for U.S. trade relations
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