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Quarterly Economic Forecast: Navigating the New Trade Normal
Economists are still suffering from whiplash following the twists and turns of U.S. trade policy. But despite all the back and forth, our forecast for the global economy is broadly unchanged from our view in June. Global growth is on track to advance 3.1% this year, with a slight slowdown in the cards for 2026. In the euro area, GDP rose at a 0.4% annualized pace in Q2, slightly above expectations but sharply slower than the 2.4% pace in Q1. China expanded 5.2% year-on-year in Q2, stronger than forecast, though weak credit growth and continued property stress point to softer momentum in the second half. Japan’s ... (full story)
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