September 2025 US Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) sets monetary policy to meet the 2% inflation target, and in a way that helps to sustain growth and employment. The MPC adopts a medium-term and forward-looking approach to determine the monetary stance required to achieve the inflation target sustainably. At its meeting ending on 17 September 2025, the MPC voted by a majority of 7–2 to maintain Bank Rate at 4%. Two members voted to reduce Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points, to 3.75%. The Committee voted by a majority of 7–2 to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £70 billion over the next 12 months, to a total of £488 billion. There has been substantial disinflation over the past two and a half years, following previous external shocks, supported by the restrictive stance of monetary policy. That progress has allowed for reductions in Bank Rate over the past year. The Committee remains focused on squeezing out any existing or emerging persistent inflationary pressures, to return inflation sustainably to its 2% target in the medium term. BoE policymakers Dhingra and Taylor voted to cut rates by 0.25% *BOE LEAVES KEY RATE AT 4%; EST. 4.000% *BOE SLOWS PACE OF QUANTITATIVE TIGHTENING TO £70B; EST. £70B *BOE'S BAILEY: RATE CUTS NEED TO BE MADE 'GRADUALLY & CAREFULLY' Bank holds base interest rate at 4% The Bank of England has voted to maintain the base interest rate at 4%, despite some signs the housing market is slowing down. Members of the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) and Governor Andrew Bailey (main picture) voted 7-2 for a hold. The Office for National Statistics released figures yesterday showing a 2.8% increase in house price growth in the year to July, down from 3.6% the previous month. And this decision to hold the rate is despite a stubborn inflation figure, which remained static at 3.8% yesterday, well above the Bank’s 2% target. There will be another Bank interest rate decision on 6 November, before the Budget on 26 November.

On 17 September 2025, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) published data showing that twelve-month inflation in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) was 3.8% in August, unchanged from 3.8% in July. This letter sets out the outlook for inflation and the policy action the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is taking to return inflation to the 2% target, along ...

The September FOMC meeting did not disappoint. As was widely expected, the FOMC lowered the fed funds rate by 25 bps to 4.00%-4.25%. The move marked the first adjustment to the Committee's policy rate since December and reflected a shifting balance of risk between the FOMC's mandates of full employment and inflation. With the core PCE deflator running about ...