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US ISM Services PMI Expectations Preview
Thursday’s ISM Services PMI release (04 Sep, 15:00 UK / 10:00 ET) lands into a market already parsing mixed signals – manufacturing still sub-50, labor demand has been gradually cooling, and services-led inflation has been proving sticky. Consensus looks for a modest return to expansion near 51.0 (prior 50.1); our base case sits just above the 50 line at 50.7–51.0. In market terms, a headline above 51 with firmer New Orders and an improving Employment index would likely lift front-end yields and support the Dollar (USD), especially versus low-beta FX. Conversely, below 50 with soft Employment and sticky Prices ... (full story)
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