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Reacceleration
Here’s what I see as we enter September: The US economy is reaccelerating, and US economic data is surprising to the strong side, much as it often starts to do around this time of year. The soft patch triggered by US policy uncertainty is over—and it was not dramatic. The Fed plans to cut interest rates right into this reacceleration. The government is taking over the Fed. This appears to me to be a textbook short bonds, long gold situation. And I don’t think either trade is at all crowded right now. NFP is a huge wildcard, but if you’re long gold and short bonds, you are kind of hedged for a bad jobs report ... (full story)