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US: Is a September Rate Cut Now in Play?
The busy week for the markets last week culminated in the July Employment Situation report. With the jobs data coming after the July FOMC meeting, investors were greeted with a dynamic that is somewhat unusual. With the July jobs data now in, the markets are faced with a visibly different labor market backdrop than what existed at 8:29 Friday morning prior to the release, i.e., much softer than previously thought over the last three months (see below). Here are some takeaways: • Total nonfarm payrolls rose by +73k, visibly below the consensus estimate of +104k • However, the bigger news is the fact that the prior ... (full story)