Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement

In conjunction with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on June 17-18, 2025, meeting participants submitted their projections of the most likely outcomes for real gross domestic product (GDP) growth, the unemployment rate, and inflation for each year from 2025 to 2027 and over the longer run. Each participant’s projections were based on information available at the time of the meeting, together with her or his assessment of appropriate monetary policy—including a path for the federal funds rate and its longer-run value—and assumptions about other factors likely to affect economic outcomes. The longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the value to which each variable would be expected to converge, over time, under appropriate monetary policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. “Appropriate monetary policy” is defined as the future path of policy that each participant deems most likely to foster outcomes for economic activity and inflation that best satisfy his or her individual interpretation of the statutory mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Table 1. Econ FOMC decision: No rate change The median 2025 “dot” is unchanged at two cuts (by the barest possible margin) There’s a bigger crew of policymakers (seven) who penciled in no cuts. pic.twitter.com/uWeKl0bM1U From the SEP: The median core PCE projection for 2025 is 3.1%, but there’s one official that put down 2.5% and three that put down 3.5%. The median number of cuts for 2026 fell to one cut (previously two). No one changed their long-run dot (or if they did, they traded places) https://t.co/cC5vqg7JiQ Fed Projections Indicate 7 Out Of 19 Officials Anticipate No Rate Cuts In 2025, 2 Officials Predict One Cut, 8 Expect Two Cuts, And 2 Foresee Three Cuts Fed Policymakers Predict 1.4% GDP Growth in 2025, Down from 1.7% in March, with Long-Term Growth Steady at 1.8%