Friday Speedrun: January 12, 2024

From fridayspeedrun.substack.com

CPI didn’t shed much new light on the inflation story in the USA. The immaculate disinflation and soft landing narrative remain intact, but they’re almost fully priced in and therefore what you are seeing is a lot of chop as the market pricing and the market reality are the same. As usual, the dovish people saw the inflation release as dovish because it sets up for a soft PCE figure and confirms that the inflation spike of 2021/2022 was an aberration, not a permanently higher inflation regime. And the stupidly lagging shelter component of CPI will continue to exert a gravitational pull on the inflation data for a ... (full story)