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Nobody Knows Anything, FedWatch Edition
Imagine you had a device that allowed you to peer into the future. You enter a subject matter into this machine, requesting a specific quantitative measure, and at a specific future time. In other words, Price and Date. The machine whirrs and spins, lights flash, bells ring, and out pops a chart showing a range of answers and their probabilities. You might imagine a machine like that would be worth a lot. We actually have and use lots of such devices; we take traders’ bets and use them to assess the probabilities of future occurrences. The problem is not how good or bad their track records are (they tend toward ... (full story)
