Will Rates Rally Further, Pushing Gold Down?

As the charts provided by the writer show there is a very low correlation between this measure of inflation expectations and nominal bond yields. Since inflation may rise short term then fall again by year end I suspect that any further rise in yields will be unwound again so you would be betting on very fine timing. The world has excess supply not excess demand for goods and services.

Not always. If safe haven bonds are cheap (increasing yields) money will flood there first at the cost of gold. This is what makes gold such a choppy inflation trade. Certainly not an easy one. I think the buy everything trade is the right one for now though. But let’s see.

Gold is a hedge against inflation. As Covid-19 stimulus disbursed, investors are worry about expected inflation; then, gold is a good alternative. Gold will upsurge for weeks ahead; and, I am long for it.

What the consumer does as 2021 unfolds has quite a bit of say about rates.
Yes they have their stimulus checks, and using those funds buying something takes some edge off Sticker Shock which they are experiencing as of now.
Downsizing expectations is occurring as purchasing power has been eroded.
This remains a Battle between Fed imposed inflation on goods and services against how far out on the Limb consumer will venture.

Sales value numbers will rise as consequence but actual goods acquired will be less so in effect the consumer pays more for less. This is generally not a scenario to entice anything more then a resumption of where things were a year ago.

Consumers will spend for real value but prior planned obsolescence of manufactures goods will now give a double whammy to purchasing power as cheaply made things get thrown away and get replaced with more costly disposable items. Running hard just to stay in one place is recipe for exhaustion.

Agreed - and with the relative calm of a weekend, looking at statics closely, it is difficult to argue with your position. Across all critical Fisher Transform registers, Gold appears well poised to sustain a significant uprising (and the Transform is an amazing indicator really). Personally, I do not worry too much about cross flow effects (Gold and Bonds for instance). Price will go where the market wants and but its footprint may not become obvious early from charts because we are dealing with an affine fractal. As a variable, an affine fractal moves to define uneven X,Y dimensions in space (when point placements are read as triangulations with time as base). So the charts could lag actual direction initially. So even with Bonds in a rally Gold can still sustain a significant uprising depending on the timing and range of each rally phase within the periods when bonds are falling (like now). After all there are many other factors aside from bonds that drives Gold. It does look like a sustainable uprising at this point and probably set for intensification from this week on.

The Crow (-_-)

Can you please elaborate "unwound". Does this mean, Yield will not go up because inflation is not as scary as everyone thought it would be? Will price of gold drop in few weeks?