US Average Hourly Earnings m/m

The September jobs report is unambiguously strong. US non-farm payrolls rose 254k versus the 150k consensus and there were 72k of upward revisions to the past two months of data (the range of expectations was 70k up to 220k). The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% from 4.2%, which only one person out of 71 predicted while wages rose 0.4% month-on-month with August's rate revised up 0.1pp to 0.5% MoM. On the face of this the Fed should be hiking rates with these sorts of figures, not cutting rates. The problem is that none of this tallies ...

September’s jobs picture is expected to look a lot like August’s — a gradual slowdown in hiring, a modest increase in wages and a labor market that is looking a lot like many policymakers had hoped it would. Nonfarm payrolls are projected to show growth of 150,000, from 142,000 the month before, with a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus. On the wage side, the forecast is for a 0.3% monthly gain and a 3.8% increase from a year ago — the annual rate being the same as August. Should the numbers come ...

Forecast: 150,000 jobs, 4.2% unemployment rate The U.S. jobs report has overtaken inflation as the chief worry of the Federal Reserve as it plots how fast to cut interest rates. Hiring has slowed and the unemployment rate has risen, but there's no sign the labor market is collapsing. Here's what to watch in the September jobs report on Friday morning. Headline jobs The U.S. likely added a decent 150,000 jobs in September, Wall Street DJIA economists say. In August, the preliminary estimate was 142,000. Such an increase would fall ...

The jobs report provides a real mix of numbers that does little to resolve the debate over whether the Fed will cut rates by 25bp or 50bp on 18 September. We have a 50bp in our forecast, but it is a low conviction call made on the basis that inflation fears have receded and the Fed will want to get ahead of labour market weakness, which we think will become increasingly apparent in the months ahead. In terms of the August numbers, headline non-farm payrolls rose 142k versus the 165k consensus, so a slight downside miss, but there ...

The US economy appears to be on a knife’s edge, and Friday’s jobs report will be the deciding factor as to the next direction. The August jobs report is expected to provide some much-needed clarity as to whether the labor market is slowing gracefully or spiraling quickly as was indicated by the recent weeks’ bleak batch of employment data. “The next set of job numbers released this week will be among the most consequential in a while,” Tuan Nguyen, US economist at RSM US, wrote in commentary issued Wednesday. Economists are expecting ...

Let's not forget about another important piece of information from the US today - the average hourly earnings. The YoY figure has been on a decline since the beginning of the year.