EZ CPI Flash Estimate y/y

Inflation rates on both sides of the Atlantic continue to cool, setting the stage for interest rate cuts by key central banks later this month. In the United States, personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation met expectations in July, showing a modest rise both monthly and annually. Meanwhile, in Europe, inflation fell closer to the target of 2%, reaching its lowest level in three years. Economists attributed the easing in Europe's annual inflation rate to a significant decline in Germany's economy, strengthening the case for a ...

US inflation figures in the coming week will reinforce that long-awaited interest-rate cuts are coming soon, while a reading on consumer spending is seen indicating that the central bank has been successful at keeping the expansion intact. Economists see the personal consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy — the Fed’s preferred measure of underlying inflation — rising 0.2% in July for a second month. That would pull the three-month annualized rate of so-called core inflation down to 2.1%, a smidgen above the ...

In the middle of last week, the Fed funds futures discounted 103 bp of cuts this year. There was some movement but after Fed Chair Powell’s, but the market finished the week with 104 bp of cuts priced into the Fed funds futures curve. The two-year note yield settled at a three-week low and the dollar slumped. The Dollar Index's 1.7% lost last week, its fifth consecutive drop and the largest weekly decline of the year. Although the euro rose to $1.12, its best level since July 2023, and sterling appreciated to $1.3230, its best level ...

Who says we don’t ask the important questions here at ING? And no, I didn’t have a clue what it meant either, so this economist hit Google so you don't have to. The Charli XCX-inspired phenomenon, which has formed an unlikely crossover with the US election, throws up phrases like “melancholic self-reflection”, “a bit volatile”, “maybe says some dumb things sometimes” and “wears old, corded Apple headphones”. I know what you’re thinking: that doesn’t sound anything like our beloved central bankers. Anyway, just be grateful that Charli ...

Headline inflation in the euro area dipped to 2.5% in June, the European Union’s statistics agency said Tuesday, while the closely watched core and services prints held steady. The headline figure was in line with the expectations of economists polled by Reuters. In May, inflation had nudged 0.2 percentage point higher, to 2.6%. Core inflation, excluding the volatile effects of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, stayed at 2.9% from the prior month, narrowly missing the 2.8% economists had forecast. The rate of price rises in services ...