This journal is to record my analysis, strategy and logic for entering trades.
I adopt a Global-Macro approach to trading. In short, I search for opportunities such as mispricings and potential speculative trades with asymmetric risk rewards.
Posts about trades are DELAYED.
I strongly discourage attempts to copy my trades.
Lastly, I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR LOSSES!
(Although you can always thank me for your wins )
Edit:
22/07/2018
---
After a few months of successfully "discovering my style". I have decided that IF I perform well in 2018, to set up a new thread to promote my trading ideology.
The reason for it is multi-fold.
First and foremost is to give back to the retail trading community, it pains me to see retail traders falling into the vicious cycle of chasing quick profits. Such get-rich-quick mentality attitude to trading is simply unsustainable. Hopefully I could influence the culture to become that which is sustainable.
Secondly, i hope to attract like minded individuals and expand my network. Like the saying goes "two minds are better than one". Hopefully with my new found network could debate ideas and generate great trades for everyone.
Lastly, it is to build up my "trading resume". Although I do admit it is highly unlikely to be discovered, especially given my not so amazing performance. But if there is a chance to be discovered I definitely wouldn't want to miss it!
26/04/2018
---
My trading style has "evolved" yet again. Not drastic, but there are minor changes to my Trade Decision Process. Here is my updated trading methodology.
Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity
Draw links from news, use your logic to create a narrative.
2. Create Trade Plan
Really understand what you are trading. What are the key factors affecting it? Does evidence support/disprove your narrative? What are the risks to the trade? Where do you expect to get in/out? What are the current market sentiment? The key is to really be know and understand the product you are trading deeply. I can not stress this enough!
3. Document all possible risks
Political, economical, natural etc. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk. How much conviction do you have in this trade idea? What/where are your margin-of-safety?
If unattractive, do not trade.
4. Time the Entry
The only time I use technicals. Don't overcomplicate things here. A simple break of support/resistence or MA crossover is all I need to signal an entry.
5. Track and Manage the Trade
Is price movement justifying my forecast? Any fundamental shift if trend? Do I stay in the trade or do I get out?
I must state again the importance of knowing what you are trading. You would not buy a car without doing your homework. Neither should you enter a trade without doing your research. Research is key!
3/03/2018
---
Some more nuggets which I feel is useful for all traders to know:
- Trading is NOT a consistent activity - Don't expect to be gaining X% every day, week, month or year.
- NOBODY can predict the future - understand that every trade is essentially a gamble. Your analysis can only suggest the likelihood of success. But you can be wrong!
- Be critical of everything - Unfortunately in this industry, there is alot of conflict of interest. And people will do anything for money. Be critical of everything you see, hear, read or learn. Because it is a real possibility that someone out there will attempt to leak false info to sucker traders of their money.
These are just some nuggets that I feel help me survive and improve my trading so far. And I feel that it will benefit the typical retail trader too.
23/01/2018
---
After months of trading, I have updated my trading philosophy and decision making processes based on my experiences. Here is my updated trading philosophy.
- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail - Never enter a trade without due diligence.
- If you are wrong, get out of the trade ASAP. Do not hope for a recovery.
- Ride your winners but know when to take profits.
- Always know your downside risks, always be prepared for the worst case scenario.
- DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, ensure you are able to handle the drawdowns!
- Risk management and capital preservation is number 1 priority. Substainable gains is second by a long stretch.
- Learn to stay on the sidelines if there are no opportunities. Keep that "Dry Powder" for golden opportunities
There are not much changes to my Trade Decision Process, although I tend to rely much lesser on technical analysis now.
The main lessons learnt over these months is all about risk and hope. I can't stress enough the importance of taking a loss when you are wrong, instead of hoping for a rebound in prices.
---
30/12/2017
---
Throughout my journal, there should be a noticable change in the way I present my trade ideas. Including the types of consideration, sources of my information, type of analysis, and the presentation of my trade ideas.
A common theme is that my trade ideas are all expected to take place over a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.
__________________
Note to Self:
Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity - Draw links from news, Logic
2. Create Trade Plan - Expected reactions, Expected TP and SL, Momentum, Swaps
3. Document all possible risks - political, economical, natural etc. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk
4. Time the Entry - Technicals
5. Track and Manage the Trade - Is price movement justifying my forecast? Any fundamental shift if trend? Stay in the trade or get out?
Update:
I would like to add an additional step after drawing up a trade plan. That would be to critic the plan and come up with all the ways the plan might fail. A "counter-plan" i will call it. Thereafter I will compare my original plan with the counter-plan to see whether the trade is still worth executing. This review process will help keep me out of poorly planned trades.
_________________________________
News Analysis Considerations
- Immediate, Short (<5 days), Medium (5 days ~ 3 Month) and Long Term (>3 Months) Impact of News
- Divergence/Opportunity between time impact of news
- Context of News/Statistics
- Expectations before the news
Nuggets to self
- Market tend to overreact to news. Especially when its bad
- Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
- Buy the rumours, sell the facts
- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
- It is better to miss a winning trade than to catch a losing one
- Don't put all your eggs in one basket - Diversify!
- 80% Fundamental, 20% Technical
- Bulls go up the stairs, bears jump out the window
- Don't worry about the short-term fluctuations, focus on the main trend - Sit Tight!
- Only risk what you are willing to lose
- Cut your losers when you are proven wrong, not when the losses start to hurt
- You must be willing to lose all your profits in order to catch a big move
- You win some, you lose some. One trade dont determine success.
- Take a break from trading after a loss - Trust me, it helps!
- Revenge trade is suicide - DONT DO IT
- Losing trades are lessons, not failues
- NEVER ever place a trade when you are not thinking right
- Hope kills - Don't hope! Have contingencies!
- To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself - Prevent the loss of your capital and wait for the market to provide you with a trading opportunity
____________________
Edit:
---
Throughout my journal, there should be a noticable change in the way I present my trade ideas. Including the types of consideration, sources of my information, type of analysis, and the presentation of my trade ideas.
A common theme is that my trade ideas are all expected to take place over a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.
I adopt a Global-Macro approach to trading. In short, I search for opportunities such as mispricings and potential speculative trades with asymmetric risk rewards.
WARNING
Everything I post here are my OPINIONS. Not trade recommendations!Posts about trades are DELAYED.
I strongly discourage attempts to copy my trades.
Lastly, I AM NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR YOUR LOSSES!
(Although you can always thank me for your wins )
Edit:
22/07/2018
---
After a few months of successfully "discovering my style". I have decided that IF I perform well in 2018, to set up a new thread to promote my trading ideology.
The reason for it is multi-fold.
First and foremost is to give back to the retail trading community, it pains me to see retail traders falling into the vicious cycle of chasing quick profits. Such get-rich-quick mentality attitude to trading is simply unsustainable. Hopefully I could influence the culture to become that which is sustainable.
Secondly, i hope to attract like minded individuals and expand my network. Like the saying goes "two minds are better than one". Hopefully with my new found network could debate ideas and generate great trades for everyone.
Lastly, it is to build up my "trading resume". Although I do admit it is highly unlikely to be discovered, especially given my not so amazing performance. But if there is a chance to be discovered I definitely wouldn't want to miss it!
26/04/2018
---
My trading style has "evolved" yet again. Not drastic, but there are minor changes to my Trade Decision Process. Here is my updated trading methodology.
Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity
Draw links from news, use your logic to create a narrative.
2. Create Trade Plan
Really understand what you are trading. What are the key factors affecting it? Does evidence support/disprove your narrative? What are the risks to the trade? Where do you expect to get in/out? What are the current market sentiment? The key is to really be know and understand the product you are trading deeply. I can not stress this enough!
3. Document all possible risks
Political, economical, natural etc. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk. How much conviction do you have in this trade idea? What/where are your margin-of-safety?
If unattractive, do not trade.
4. Time the Entry
The only time I use technicals. Don't overcomplicate things here. A simple break of support/resistence or MA crossover is all I need to signal an entry.
5. Track and Manage the Trade
Is price movement justifying my forecast? Any fundamental shift if trend? Do I stay in the trade or do I get out?
I must state again the importance of knowing what you are trading. You would not buy a car without doing your homework. Neither should you enter a trade without doing your research. Research is key!
3/03/2018
---
Some more nuggets which I feel is useful for all traders to know:
- Trading is NOT a consistent activity - Don't expect to be gaining X% every day, week, month or year.
- NOBODY can predict the future - understand that every trade is essentially a gamble. Your analysis can only suggest the likelihood of success. But you can be wrong!
- Be critical of everything - Unfortunately in this industry, there is alot of conflict of interest. And people will do anything for money. Be critical of everything you see, hear, read or learn. Because it is a real possibility that someone out there will attempt to leak false info to sucker traders of their money.
These are just some nuggets that I feel help me survive and improve my trading so far. And I feel that it will benefit the typical retail trader too.
23/01/2018
---
After months of trading, I have updated my trading philosophy and decision making processes based on my experiences. Here is my updated trading philosophy.
- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail - Never enter a trade without due diligence.
- If you are wrong, get out of the trade ASAP. Do not hope for a recovery.
- Ride your winners but know when to take profits.
- Always know your downside risks, always be prepared for the worst case scenario.
- DO NOT OVERLEVERAGE, ensure you are able to handle the drawdowns!
- Risk management and capital preservation is number 1 priority. Substainable gains is second by a long stretch.
- Learn to stay on the sidelines if there are no opportunities. Keep that "Dry Powder" for golden opportunities
There are not much changes to my Trade Decision Process, although I tend to rely much lesser on technical analysis now.
The main lessons learnt over these months is all about risk and hope. I can't stress enough the importance of taking a loss when you are wrong, instead of hoping for a rebound in prices.
---
30/12/2017
---
Throughout my journal, there should be a noticable change in the way I present my trade ideas. Including the types of consideration, sources of my information, type of analysis, and the presentation of my trade ideas.
A common theme is that my trade ideas are all expected to take place over a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.
__________________
Initial post:
Note to Self:
Trade Decision Process
1. Identify Fundamental Opportunity - Draw links from news, Logic
2. Create Trade Plan - Expected reactions, Expected TP and SL, Momentum, Swaps
3. Document all possible risks - political, economical, natural etc. List and run through the scenarios, identify the downside risk
4. Time the Entry - Technicals
5. Track and Manage the Trade - Is price movement justifying my forecast? Any fundamental shift if trend? Stay in the trade or get out?
Update:
I would like to add an additional step after drawing up a trade plan. That would be to critic the plan and come up with all the ways the plan might fail. A "counter-plan" i will call it. Thereafter I will compare my original plan with the counter-plan to see whether the trade is still worth executing. This review process will help keep me out of poorly planned trades.
_________________________________
News Analysis Considerations
- Immediate, Short (<5 days), Medium (5 days ~ 3 Month) and Long Term (>3 Months) Impact of News
- Divergence/Opportunity between time impact of news
- Context of News/Statistics
- Expectations before the news
Nuggets to self
- Market tend to overreact to news. Especially when its bad
- Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful
- Buy the rumours, sell the facts
- Fail to Plan, Plan to Fail
- It is better to miss a winning trade than to catch a losing one
- Don't put all your eggs in one basket - Diversify!
- 80% Fundamental, 20% Technical
- Bulls go up the stairs, bears jump out the window
- Don't worry about the short-term fluctuations, focus on the main trend - Sit Tight!
- Only risk what you are willing to lose
- Cut your losers when you are proven wrong, not when the losses start to hurt
- You must be willing to lose all your profits in order to catch a big move
- You win some, you lose some. One trade dont determine success.
- Take a break from trading after a loss - Trust me, it helps!
- Revenge trade is suicide - DONT DO IT
- Losing trades are lessons, not failues
- NEVER ever place a trade when you are not thinking right
- Hope kills - Don't hope! Have contingencies!
- To secure ourselves against defeat lies in our own hands, but the opportunity of defeating the enemy is provided by the enemy himself - Prevent the loss of your capital and wait for the market to provide you with a trading opportunity
____________________
Edit:
---
Throughout my journal, there should be a noticable change in the way I present my trade ideas. Including the types of consideration, sources of my information, type of analysis, and the presentation of my trade ideas.
A common theme is that my trade ideas are all expected to take place over a long period. And most run contrary to the current market trend.
I look for value wherever it can be found