I look for value wherever it can be found
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Disliked{quote} Nope, it could close at 1.417. Thats my error bound. But then again its simply numbers, price could close well outside of range.Ignored
Disliked{quote} I agree that is a possibiliy if we have don't have super funamental drivers this month. Traders for gbp/USD will be paying very close attention to see if we get an indication from the boe regarding a rate hike in May and possibly one in November which could elevate gbp/usd up 300-400 pips or so. If we don't get that then pound is going to fall quite a bit as brexit still has traders on their toes.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Well understood. However my trade is not only on events occuring in the next month, but over a series of event occuring in the longer term - specifically the widening differential between US and UK's interest rates. Based on my findings. My conviction is that UK's economy has exposed cracks from the post-brexit devaluation of the pound. It is currently a fragile economy. My take is that BoE could not and would not hike rates too aggressively as it could have negative consequences for the economy. Also, my opinion is that markets are way...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hmmm it's hard to call England a fragile economy as cpi is at a good level and employment is the best it's been since the 70's they say. Raising interest rates I admit is very stupid considering we haven't concluded brexit. I'd be quite surprise to see what's going to happen to equities/Indicies if the rate hikes occur. Now if we get a hard brexit then the pound will tumble because the boe could be forced to cut rates to make sure businesses and consumers can survive. Right now I think we are in a neutral stance but I wonder if the boe is...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Inflation is high because of the mass devaluation of the pound post brexit, pushing import prices up. AKA Cost Push Inflation. This is different from the typical inflation whereby prices rise due to consumers earning more and thus spending more (Demand Pull Inflation). This is not the kind of inflation we would want in the economy. Yes no doubt unemployment is low, but the pace of wage rise have been lagging behind the pace of inflation. It has recently matched inflation levels. We can already see the effect of disparity between the pace...Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hmm I commend you on this because your perspective is that of an investor and mine is that of a trader which is very sentiment driven. Lol Goldmansachs are taunting the UK saying they have hired lawyers to sort out their relocation and it's not too late as they haven't paid the lawyers lol.Ignored
Disliked3/4/2018 --- I realised that S&P500 just closed below the 200 Day moving average yesterday. I may not be a huge fan of technical analysis. But violation of a industry accepted indicator might just set off some psychological chain reaction. Looking for further weakness in the equity markets specifically today and probably the rest of this week as well. The longer this goes the more convinced I am that this "correction" is actually a crash. Still waiting for a spillover effect into other assets. Bonds, Currencies, Commodities. Somehow, the risk off...Ignored
Disliked4/4/2018 --- Seems that GBP enjoyed quite a start to the new quarter. Even gaining against USD despite some USD comeback against other currencies. So far it is still gaining in the asian session. I guess it will be another day of GBPUSD strength... Im contemplating a "quick scalp" up. Probably going to set my order at around the open of the day 1.407. Update: Entry has been triggered by a relatively quick decending price movement. Makes me slightly nervous about my decision! Ohwells, its a small position anyway and I'll probably close at the end...Ignored
Disliked{quote} didn't know investors were allowed to scalp lol. Yea it gained strength but it was very choppy so whoever was in the trade must have been frustrated.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Haha it is totally not my style, guess I got to keep those itchy fingers in control. Its a small position anyways. I could probably justify as hedging my emotions? If I win then great, I manage to save abit on the drawdown, if I lose, at least I know price is heading in my intended direction.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Lol looking at pound now it seems all traders ate doing is scalping it and letting it fall back to a suport level. They are treating it like a penny stock lolIgnored
Disliked{quote} Somehow Im not really phased that cable is weaker now. With the volatility the past few days, such swings up and down are kinda expected. That being said, I guess theres no point in holding this "scalp" position if prices keep heading down. We shall see how things goes by the end of the day.Ignored
Disliked{quote} For some reason traders seem to be trading it in a sideways level using the same stop and take profit. Similar to me the market is waiting for the next market drive which is likely nfp on Friday.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Well it really looks like normal volatility to me. I think lots of people, especially those scalpers, tend to overlook the concept of volatility. I mean if you set a 5-10pip TP target, especially on a pair with high daily volatility, there is a very high chance that the target will be hit. It is not a matter of skill but purely variance.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Hmm see I can't trade like that because 10 pip target isnt a proper goal. What happens when the trade goes against you? I think the current trend is good but considering how the market is acting I think cable gas been very very steady compared to the rest.Ignored
Disliked{quote} Yeah neither can I. Im just trying to highlight one habit in retail trading which I dub as a fallacy. As for cable, Im not sure whether to be happy or sad that its gaining.Ignored