You have to think like they do. If you were selling Euro's would you want everyone to sell at the same time as you? Or would it be better to buy enough to start a trend and then start selling into that trend?

Counter-trend trading

Based on my own analysis using things that can't just be seen by PA alone. Remember the PA is what they want you to see. It is their advertising and is often false. I may be wrong so just evaluating what I am seeing at the moment.

Counter-trend trading

Big call! I am not confident enough to make these calls yet but I do see that level and I do agree that the current price is overvalued. Keen to see how this plays out. Regards Neio

Counter-trend trading

That makes sense to me because what I took from the whole TZ discussion/lesson is that more often than not price likes to be recurrent. You are clearly trading back to areas where price has already been. The problem is timing. We all know the big ...

Counter-trend trading

I spent a lot of time with TZs and I could not get it to work in all market conditions either. Worked fine for me when ranging but trending ruined it for me. Ironic. Some people are making it work for them so I think it is a personal thing. Does not ...

Counter-trend trading

Like I said I don't have the answers as I am still developing ideas myself....but it is certainly an interesting line of inquiry.

Counter-trend trading

I am still developing my ideas but what I can say is that the price that we see is often how the big players want us to see it. They want us to believe in and blindly follow trends in the belief that they will keep going. Maybe it is a bit extreme ...

Counter-trend trading

OK I see that KPRSA gave a possible reason in a post that followed. Here is what I have put together so far for EURAUD. Will have to see how this plays out in the real market. I am hoping that it allows me to see the real price or value. Thank you ...

Another Trading Journal

Hmmmm....does anyone know why the Red line is 0.5 EUR/AUD and -0.5 AUD/USD ? Why not 0.5 EUR/USD and -0.5 AUD/USD? Was it a typo?

Another Trading Journal

Likewise!

Counter-trend trading

Fair enough I understand your point....so far there is nothing for a newbie to follow other than blindly following a statement. I understand some of the reason why Ullen has made the statement that he has because of what I learnt from other threads ...

Counter-trend trading

FYI, He did mention in the thread opening that he was referring to the shorter term trend.

Counter-trend trading

The problem with defining trends is that there are shorter term trends on lower time frames that may be in the opposite direction to the longer term trend. I think we all need to get over the subject title of Ullen's journal.

Counter-trend trading

Subscribed my friend!

Counter-trend trading

Congratulations mate. No offence taken. I never said that this is not successfully being traded. Just that nobody is 100% successful with their calls. Not even Eurusdd.

The similarity system

I think this is a significant point. The original assumption is that the market has no memory.

The similarity system

I would imagine that a large amount of the recurrence happens within 5 bars. What if we were just to exclude these from the stats? So what is the probability of a potential TZ being cleared after the first X bars. Just thinking out loud...

The similarity system

I see what you are saying and I like your thinking...I would be interested to see the results of that. A range bar chart with a TZ indicator?

The similarity system

Further to my previous post. While sometimes the numbers don't stack up what we can see is that for a high percentage of time the market (EUR/USD) likes to be recurrent. FYI here is the last call that EURUSDD got wrong.

The similarity system

Welcome Barbaresco, I have come to the same conclusions. I have experimented a lot and tried high and low h values on different TFs. You would think that a higher h value might reduce the number of successive TZs but when there is a powerful move ...

The similarity system