Looking at EUSK after the gap up shows a smaller but significant skew still towards the dollar. Implied fed funds still has slight edge to a 25bp cut in Dec, but PCE could absolutely flip that. Also interesting is implied rates across 2025 which are ...

EURUSD only

Well, we saw what we thought, although my position was smaller than I wanted due to the lack of retracement. Next week will be a BIG one for USD with PCE and Fed minutes. These are important puzzle pieces before Dec FOMC, which the market has priced ...

EURUSD only

After the big move mid-NY session derivative market pricing seems much more fearful of further EURUSD downside. Closed my position to take profit but may reenter tomorrow before the flash PMIs depending on the price movement in the interim. I think ...

EURUSD only

Wow, we definitely got some of the dollar skewed volatility today! Escalation is implied in that down vol, and it seems the market is growing more concerned about a further move down-- EUSK (the volatility skew index) is down further today. May just ...

EURUSD only

image Also interesting-- this is the 25delta risk reversal for EURUSD, anything under 0 shows higher IV premium paid for downside protection vs upside protection in derivative products, indicating market expects large moves to be down rather than ...

EURUSD only

Welp brutal NY session, I think thesis remains intact and just a retracement from overtrading last week (hopefully!). If price gets much worse may exit and reassess for better price point.

EURUSD only

Still short and planning on holding through Friday at least. Seems US Flash PMI has the biggest upside surprise potential given anticipated tax and regulation rollbacks, playing into the 'wait and see' Fed narrative that could indicate a slower rate ...

EURUSD only

Fed funds futures from 58% before largely in line CPI print to over 80% after- still moving dollar's way. European growth looks anemic vs US.

EURUSD only