You can only predict with a certain probability that a market is entering a range beforehand. Of course you won't be able to predict this with certainty (Nothing is certain in the whole world anyway, so what do you expect from the market). There are ...

how does one identify a ranging market?

Or is it the opposite That commodities might rise because of the appreciation of the Canadian Dollar and the Australian Dollar? Or is it another thing, that commodities might continue to appreciate because of weakness in the USD? Or is it another ...

Averaging Down - Is It Really That Bad?

No, Equities and Forex are not different to some extent, they are VERY DIFFERENT. The leverage factor in forex won't allow you to survive an average like the one you mentioned. You will have to have deep pockets to average in equities and of course ...

Averaging Down - Is It Really That Bad?

I haven't studied the trades you mentioned so this suggestion is just off my head. I would assume that you are using a fixed position size for all trades. In order to think of optimizing the MM to be used to increase the system profitability, I ...

Money Management - the art of the exit

Thanks Hanover Happy 2011 to you as well and all the best. Regards, Nader

Money Management - the art of the exit

This comes back to the trader psychology. Most traders usually don't have faith in their systems when it comes to losing streaks. That's basically because they haven't tested the system well to have that faith in during bad times. A trading system ...

Twelve widely believed forex myths

Don't underestimate the speculative activity in the FX market, it's huge and a big portion of speculators use stops, whether those stops are visible or not. As fti noted, it can be anyone who does have the ability to move the market towards a ...

Confused about stop hunting

You are more than welcome. Hope it helped... Regards, Nader

The difference between a MA and a non lag MA?

Well, the quote you mentioned is approximately true. In theory, high readings of VIX or VXN are not necessarily an indication of a market bottom. That's because volatility can increase if the market is going up or down. However, since it's well ...

Put/call vs Volatility

Well, put/call ratio just measures the ratio between the OI of puts versus OI of calls to give an indication of how bullish or bearish is the market at the moment, nothing to do with volatility anyway. The VIX/VXN are calculated using the indices ...

Put/call vs Volatility

It's during the European session (London) where you get the majority of the volume. Regards, Nader

Highest volume trading hours?

A very interesting article and research. Thank You. Regards, Nader

The $4 trillion question: what explains FX growth since the 2007 BIS survey?

Actually, Goldman Sachs is not in the top 5 players in the FX market at all. Deutsche Bank, UBS, Barclays, Citigroup & RBS are the top 5 players in the FX market. That's not official data though, it's based on a Euromoney survey, but I think you can ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?

What you can control sometimes depends partially on the outcome You can control your position size, but the next couple of bars (The outcome) can lead you to change your position size accordingly. So in a sense, you have to care about both. ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?

There are tens of variations for trailing stops. The main objective of a trailing stop is to let you ride the trend but not get stopped out because of minor corrections against the trend. If you want my opinion, try researching to attach your ...

Trailing Stop Settings for Intraday settings?

Do you really think this is possible??!!! EURGBP = EURUSD / GBPUSD It has to be like that. If EURUSD and GBPUSD stay the same, then EURGBP must stay the same. If it moved a considerable amount, then there is an arbitrage opportunity and will soon be ...

Can EURGBP move independently of GBPUSD and EURUSD?

Unfortunately, there is nothing called a non-lag MA till now. There are only attempts to reduce the lag of the MA by using different weighting methods in the MA formula. The SMA (Simple Moving Average) averages the closing prices of the mentioned ...

The difference between a MA and a non lag MA?

gspajon, I will have to slightly disagree. I do agree that the market is made up to people and not math and that those people affect each and every tick and that hundreds of thousands of possibilities can be expected every tick. However, when you ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?

I would recommend to use significant points for fib drawing. Significant means significant on the chart. Well tested levels, round numbers if tested, avoid long shadows unless they were significant on a lower time frame, etc... Regards, Nader

Drawing Fibonacci levels!

You only approach the 90% and the 10% when the sample size is infinite. Let me put it like this, as much as you increase the sample, the win and loss probabilities will approach the 90% and the 10%. With smaller samples, there will always be a ...

How to keep in faith with a statistically profitable system?