Jeff, it's almost June, my friend. The next couple of months are going to fly by. We are talking about 40 trading days and some change. Fundamentally, this thing is done. You never know though, there may be some real demand that pushes this a little ...

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Just a couple years ago I caught myself thinking along these same lines. If only it were that easy. Just remember your actual exchange rate is where a trader makes his real dough. The rate differential can be icing on the cake, but it does not ...

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Well, what an odd week, not all bad. It's very tough to discern at this point exactly how the market is going to digest this rate cut. That large bull flag on the larger time frames is trying to breakout. I get the sense that USDTRY is being ...

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Yeah you might be right. The market may not care about half a percentage point, but it has reacted harshly to the unorthodox policies in the past. I'll be curious to see what London does to end the week.

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video Hopefully the video makes it onto the thread. I haven't posted one in a while and I can't remember if I embed it or just post the URL (got it). Anyways...Basci did it, lowered the one-week repo rate by half a percent. I grabbed this video ...

USD/TRY

We've made it back down to 2.10 within the past couple of hours. It's a waiting game now, trading up until the rate decision would be ill advised. As everyone has noticed I often think, rethink and then rethink again my view of the market. I suppose ...

USD/TRY

As we approach Thursday I'm still eyeballing 2.10 as an on the fence price. Inflation data in Turkey clearly favors holding rates steady, we are dealing with the possibility of a political move which may not happen. 2.12 will be an interesting ...

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The only way that bull flag is going to mean anything is if Turkey undermines itself and lowers interest rates on Thursday. The Dollar/Lira rate is still pretty weak, historically speaking. I don't think that a US rate increase, to what will be ...

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Thank you, Sir. Looks like they might touch 2.115 on my chart afterall. TWT.

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Islander, do you have a Bloomberg terminal? For some reason I recalled you were setup with it. If so, what high price did you see last hour?

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Well, one platform says we made it to 2.1142, the other 2.1137. Close enough, looks like it's getting pinned down as we are so late in the hour. Asia can help run this down later, if NY doesn't do it. Then London will shrink spreads for profit ...

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Excellent work everyone. I'm working on getting short at the moment. The market will likely take the stops out above this last drive up. Then it'll go back to < 2.1 as we approach Thursday. I'd be surprised to see this driven up much more when the ...

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I agree with Islander. This flag isn't breaking today. Probably won't happen until London tomorrow. I think that the lower channel line will catch this. If we can see a 150 pip move < 2.1, I think we see at least that above it. As we approach ...

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The wide spread followed the stop hunt. Everyone cancels their orders to settle the market down. When the spread becomes 50 pips then you'd better be pretty damn sure which way you want to trade. Trading is much like children fighting over a toy. ...

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Thats the stop sweep...And hopefully the pin bar. Knew it'd show up soon. Now is the true test.

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Thanks for the liquidity. Hopefully this relationship can be a symbiotic one.

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Went ahead and pulled the trigger when the spread dropped to 6.5. I think the London guys will take this to that 38 fib level, I hate DD but a few pips won't kill me. We'll see what they want to do with it. Hopefully we'll see 2.13 soon. image

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I think you'll do well at that position. I'm watching the confluence of 2.09, the 38% fib and a trend line area, thats how I came up with the 2.0875 figure. Usually the market doesn't start making ground for at least another hour. If I miss this ...

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Quick note on spreads. Usually they tighten up when London gets going. We're about an hour out from that. I'm thinking we'll see another puncture turned pin bar. 2.0875ish. We'll see at least one more stop sweep. I hope. We can't let em off that ...

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Alright guys we are getting close. If there will be a long here it will need to be below 2.09 for me. The spread is still too high. The lowest I saw was 10. Patience, its gonna go a bit lower. TWT.

USD/TRY