Is it time to sell the Australian dollar? They have cut their interest rate and they have weak growth, falling trade balance, increasing current account deficit, falling inflation and the unemployment rate have also increased. The problems in Greece ...

Long term fundamental trading

Maybe I'm wrong but doesn't a shrinking population mean that less people will loan money from the bank and that less money will be created? If less money is created shouldn't the currency be strong?

Long term fundamental trading

I also meant sell. I don't know why I wrote buy. I can't see any reason to buy a currency that is in a period of deflation. The bank of Japan have an inflation target of 1 % but even if they reach that target most of the other major currencies have ...

Long term fundamental trading

I have watched the video. Why would you buy a currency of a country with a positive current account balance that is in a period of shrinking population size, shrinking economy, and deflation? Remember that a bad economy can be bad for a currency but ...

Long term fundamental trading

It is important to analyze other countries. For example you can't analyze Australia without looking at how it goes in China because Australia exports a lot of raw materials to china. If the economy in China slows down the same will probably happen ...

Long term fundamental trading

What I mean by technical pattern can be something as simple as a daily candle that closes above the opening price of the latest down day. That is something which is guaranteed to happen when an uptrend begins so that's one of the things I will be ...

Trading flowchart

Yes but that is a trading journal=something you write for yourself. The purpose of this thread is to have a place where many different people can discuss what their sentiment is on the different currencies and learn from each other.

Long term fundamental trading

No I would not buy AUD/JPY because Australia has begun to lower their interest rate and Japan is in a period of negative growth and deflation which means that their currency should increase in value. My bias would be short AUD and long JPY.

Trading flowchart

NSD/USD might be a good carry trade candidate. The interest rate in USA is 0,25 and probably won't increase before 2014 The interest rate in New Zealand is 2,50 % and is expected to increase to 4 % in 2013.

Long term fundamental trading

I agree that it is also important to look at expectations for the future. Technicals might work on the short time frames but I'm interested in holding trades for many weeks or months and that will probably not happen unless the fundamentals support ...

Trading flowchart

Nobody with an opinion about this?

Trading flowchart

2008.10.05 - 2009.11.08 In this period AUD/CAD increased. Maybe because Canada had three quarters og negative growth and Australia was able to avoid a technical recession. Both countries had falling inflation rates, falling interest rates, and ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

That's a good suggestion. I don't think any economic numbers will be ignored. It's just that sometimes something is more important and creates an expectation of what the numbers will be in the future. If anyone can think of something important that ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

Maybe but if you don't understand why something happened in the past you should not expect to be able to understand why the same thing will happen in the future. The purpose of this project is to be able to anticipate big movements based on ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

2009.11.08 - 2010.06.06 Why did AUD/CAD fall? Maybe because the trade balance in Australia in this period was negative and the Canadian trade balance went from negative to positive. The current account deficit in Australia also increased and in ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

I have just added "The many rate hikes in Australia and the resulting interest rate differential has probably contributed to the rise in this pair." Do you know why the pair fell in the previous period?

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

2010.06.06 - today Why did AUD/CAD rise? In this period Australia had a positive trade balance every month except from march 2011. In Canada they had a negative trade balance 12 months out of 18. I think this is important because both countries are ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future

Please write which period you have chosen so we don't have a lot of people wasting time on the same period. I will start with the period from 2010.06.06 - today. On the chart above it doesn't look like the moves are big but that's because it is a ...

Studying history to understand what will happen in the future