China - Latest developments — China's central bank has just raised bank reserve rates by 50 basis points for the SECOND TIME. This was the news I was waiting for. Let's see how the commodity currencies react!

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

The drawback with fundamentals — I love fundamentals, I believe it gives me an edge as to what's happening and what's going to happen in the markets. The drawback with fundamentals, or maybe it's just me that hasn't figured this out yet, is ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Well done! — if i can remember, China has restricted loan to property related areas. Yes, this is correct. It was to reduce real estate market speculation. This lending was for other areas as well including real estate. When you have this much ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

China again — To get a good understanding of how the developments in China can impact it's economy. Let's try a parallel exercise. It's a high probability that China will need to cool the economy and there are several ways that they can do ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Good first step — Well done! It's a first step. Remember that monetary policy is more than just rates. China may choose to not raise rates, but there could be other ways of tightening monetary policy, like letting the Yuan appreciate, ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

China — In anticipation of monetary tightening, there has been a record amount of loans in January, more than the 3 previous months combined. Real estate prices are also up close to 10% from the previous year. This to me is a warning of an ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

AUDUSD — IMO, I don't think Greece is going to change the BIG picture. In the short term, possibly it could give a boost. However if there is a full scale bailout then the downside won't be as steep but I can't see it fueling risk appetite ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

No problem — No problem. Use this opportunity to LEARN to do your own analysis, then in the future you won't need to ask anyone else. Then you should have a pretty good idea of where the markets will be moving without anyone else's help. This ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Medium Term Reversals — Hi rac, IMO, it's still way too early to say that there is a move towards risk appetite in the medium term. My analysis is that the medium term risk aversion has just started and still has some more weeks and possibly ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Well said! — Thank you, rac. Yes, this is exactly what I meant. The point of this thread is for traders to do their own analysis, NOT for me to give my analysis on every single news item that gets released. BTW, yes, your analysis is correct. ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Medium and Long Term — I think you are focusing too much on the short term and need to get a bit more familiar with the medium and long term. We had the AUD employment rate unveiled hour and a half ago and prices are moving like if risk of ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

News — Also Dubai World has a enough money left over from the bail out to cover some but not all of the bonds due to mature this year. In regards, to the news, yes, I check it as often as I can. Not so much an addiction more like a habit. ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Only time will tell — Key word: IF IIRC, European and US banks had very little exposure to these debts. It's was more of the local and middle eastern banks that had the biggest exposure. So it may not have as much of an impact. But only time ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Doom and gloom — There are some valid points in those articles, but there is also a lot of exaggerations IMO. Assuming both are credible, which I think the arguments are quite strong, can I have your comments on how to translate this into ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Dubai debt crisis round 2 — url Yes, I agree. I also would have thought that this would have made the news everywhere by now. But then again maybe everyone is so occupied with Greece and the other EZ debt problems. Or maybe markets don't see ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Round 2! — It looks like Dubai World is asking for a debt freeze of $22 billion this month. Last time this happened, the markets received quite a bit of a shock Nov 25-27 in 2009. Well it looks like more fuel for continued risk aversion. It ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Here we go again! — It looks like Dubai World is asking for a debt freeze of $22 billion this month. Last time this happened, the markets received quite a bit of a shock Nov 25-27 2009. Well it looks like more fuel for risk aversion. I ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi Pilatus, Welcome to the thread. So, as I understood you correctly, you pay attention to find a pair which can be good for carry trade. This is wrong, I'm not sure where you got this from. Please re-read post #1 and #10. What I ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Welcome Sidney-sider, At the moment i see as medium term risk with 1) banking regulations Yes, agreed. However banks have always found ways around this, so this is a medium term risk but I don't think it's as big of a risk as the ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Risk aversion to risk appetite — can i assume you favor risk aversion in medium term at moment? Yes and I believe there is still a ways to go before we see a turnaround. i am curious to know when you will favor risk appetite. I'll lean towards ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading