Sounds a tad alarmist. What's happening speeds up divesting of dollars but only relatively speaking. It's already happening but it's complex to do, and there's no ready-made alternative. So it's the flow that changes, but still timeline of decades. ...

Preparing for the post USD as the world reserve currency

Oculus, only as my name was dragged in - what *have* you been looking at for the past 3 years? Pi? Origins of candlesticks? Expected trajectories divided into 6 (3 up 3 down)? All decent avenues of research to name but three. This is the esoteric ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

On average you post once a year, you're the epitome of restraint. Nice gpt thread.

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

you were easily unearthed What you found may be useful but I don't use probabilistic models at all tbh. Not because they've no value; simply because I terrorised myself reading Prado & Chan and made a solemn vow to never, ever compete in ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

Wolfram, with a username like yours, I'm sure you you're just taking the piss and I'm 99% certain you already know. To create random data that resembles asset prices you need to use a garch model because volatility clusters. And the mere existence ...

Higher Edge within a Single Candlestick

you already had a ton of advice about online mentors, then you went and traded ICT. I don’t want to sound harsh but how long did you spend doing due diligence first?

My Biggest Problem

9 years later! But bang on, yes

Calculating probability of losing streaks

Precisely like this.

Impact of option expiry on a currency

Fundamental — I just told you. Jump over to a stocks site, not here though. Gann never published his strategy, only intimated it. Had a sharpe that’d measure over 20 if the accounts can be believed. Predicted both time and price, left a series of ...

Nine square? Time cycles? Trading with Math?

Think about value of that kind of discovery, then think if it’s likely to be available by a quick Google and theres your answer. if you don’t mind me saying I think it’s important to play to your strengths. You will obviously find chart reading ...

Nine square? Time cycles? Trading with Math?

I get you, I mean overfitting to your results, but I had misunderstood exactly what you were doing to be fair (you need a summary page!). In which case, nice idea - congrats. It's a tough one to test so the proof is in the doing, but I respect the ...

The Just Calculator for Optimal Money Management

Interesting… but if size is constantly adjusted to most recent performance you risk overfitting (fat tails, vol clustering). This seems very theoretical and I suspect in practice it’d fold quite quickly. Have you any real world validation?

The Just Calculator for Optimal Money Management

Not at all. you’re confusing two separate methods. One is about group behaviour and the other is about flow. Both are — or should be - based on observation and maths. Just because hope and pray is popular doesn’t make it right. re flow you can’t see ...

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?

not generally in FX, happens once or twice daily I grant you usually news releases, but the general direction isn't determined by depth of orders, otherwise an EBS order book would see you millions in no time. It won't btw.

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?

Yep, you're right. It's about measuring the duration, strength and direction of a trend from birth to death which leads to prediction of same - exactly how Honma did it

Real breakout vs fakeout, possible to identify them?

literally just told you, so I’m not sure what I can say! Rentech— no. All decent strategies have a liquidity limit, and if the returns are stellar they don’t open to the public, and never report their returns . Rentech while massive and hugely ...

Is a 100% systematic approach possible?

i'd take a few steps back if I were you - what's everyone else doing, what does it look like, and then where and how do I compete? If you're quanting it, advances in machine learning is a good place to start and ask yourself whether it's realistic ...

Is a 100% systematic approach possible?

This is the kind of thing that Mark Douglas said, and sent a hundred thousand traders around the bend to check their mindset.

Proof That Forex is Random video

Depends, if they're doing it based on open positions at close of day, then it's because their internal market offset is likely synced to the MQ infrastructure and you'll just have to suck it up because they're not real prop funds. But some are doing ...

Prop firms daily loss limit

It's balanced by the counterparty, simple. This analogy is harder than it needs to be. If bank a buy from bank b that sells, and price moves up bank a is in profit, bank b is in loss. In spite of the endless fuckknuckles on youtube banging on about ...

Trading Logic and Market Constants