Submitted Jun 24, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

It seems to be a stab in the dark. There are just too many outliers involved for anyone to bet the bank with confidence. The market expects little relief from US durable good orders this morning. Investors have been shadow boxing with Trichet and ...

Submitted Jun 23, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

The EURO continues to struggle this morning, under weight from a combination of ‘soggy’ PMI data and continuing concerns over Greece’s finances. The possibility that austerity measures may not pass through the parliament is again weighing on ...

Submitted Jun 22, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|35 comments

First hurdle completed. Now the market waits for the next Greek obstacle-the Greek government parliamentary vote on crucial austerity measures next week. The Socialists need to ‘ram’ through some Eur28b worth of stringent measures before receiving a ...

Submitted Jun 21, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|66 comments

The big dollar has traded surprisingly poor despite the lukewarm news on Greece and global equities just about finding their feet in the overnight session. This morning the market has already been exposed to a dismal ZEW headline. The sentiment ...

Submitted Jun 17, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

Markets are ending the week on firmer footing. The meeting between Merkel and Sarkozy and the news of a new Greek cabinet is supporting the EUR. The German Chancellor has agreed to compromise and work with the ECB on a debt plan for Greece. ...

Submitted Jun 17, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

No one is sure if the Merkel-Sarkozy meeting can bear fruit. Will they produce a compromise on the controversial issue of private sector participation in new financing for Greece? Within the hour we will know. If not, the market will be giving back ...

Submitted Jun 16, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|6 comments

This is carnage and the mass liquidation of the Euro-unit is breaking all types of technical levels. The market is increasingly focused on the contagion risk Greece poses to European financials. Major rating agencies are all out with new reports and ...

Submitted Jun 15, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|18 comments

At the Euro-finance ministers meeting they sought to narrow differences on how investors share the cost of easing Europe’s biggest debt burden.They failed and now they have to ‘pay the piper’. The market has taken them to task by dumping the EUR ...

Submitted Jun 14, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|12 comments

Stronger than expected Chinese growth data has given a slight boost to risk appetite. Growth in Chinese industrial output (+13.3%) and fixed asset investment (+25.8%) remains robust and above market expectations, while retail sales (+16.9%) was ...

Submitted Jun 13, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|12 comments

Investors are looking for signs that global growth is bottoming. Disappointing Chinese loan data (552b vs. 740b) released last night will do little to support risk appetite. The weaker than expected release for May points to slower Chinese growth ...

Submitted Jun 10, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

It’s get out of Dodge time. The EUR continues to falter as sovereign-debt worries remain at the forefront. The ECB seems to be losing its grip on its own independence. It’s becoming more of a political pawn in Europe, talking its own book. This ...

Submitted Jun 10, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

The dollar is being supported by global growth concerns. Weaker industrial production in Europe and Asian should keep the currency better bid until next week. Every Central Banker has mentioned that lower fuel prices is the key for the market’s ...

Submitted Jun 9, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

With the BoE expected to keep policy on hold, the key focus this morning is clearly on the ECB. The market expects an unchanged rate decision. However, it’s the press conference that will gauge the markets reaction. The bias is towards a hawkish ...

Submitted Jun 7, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|5 comments

Risk sensitive currencies continue to be pulled in either direction by risk and aversion trading strategies. There seems little conviction in investors’ actions, with some currency moves remaining modest. Even with a strong Euro retail sales print ...

Submitted Jun 6, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

It’s a busy week on the rate front. Trichet is expected to signal a July hike by using ‘strong vigilance’ language in his communique when keeping rates on hold this Thursday. So far, the market has fully priced in a +25bp hike for next month. This ...

Submitted Jun 2, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com

The latest feedback on the state of the U.S. economy does little to boost confidence in the overall health of the world’s largest market. Growth for the first quarter fell far short of expectations registering a paltry 1.8 percent. For the previous ...

Submitted Jun 2, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|6 comments

European public holidays have done little to ease any of the turbulence over the last few day’s as we head into employment releases. Capital markets seems to be accepting that NFP will be bad, but, how bad? Negative sentiments from Moody’s has ...

Submitted Jun 1, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|39 comments

The EUR has held despite this weeks theatrics. Greek restructuring is apparently off the table, for now at least. In translation, the ‘strong advice and preference of the ECB has prevailed’ over Euro politicians grandstanding. There are even some ...

Submitted May 31, 2011|From forexblog.oanda.com|4 comments

Is this false hope? Germany softening its stance on restructuring demand is helping the EUR. While the market focuses its attention on the Germans, its the Greek’s ability to do or not do that we should be honing in on. No demand of an early ...