was looking at the daily charts yest .. this $6 rally in 11 trading days seems to be the break out move needed to break out of the daily trending line since Oct-18 .. if so a pull-bk to 64 +/- should be bought by mkt ... but if today gets a nasty ...

WTI Crude Oil Trading

If backwardation level persists as it is or increases, and some major event like dollar sell off or geopolitical risk happens, there can be a 5-10$ movement up in Brent Spot prices. Chances less but it has happened as recent as in Mar-May 2018.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

backwardation in brent structure has reached the highest levels almost since 2018 (minus the Oct18 extreme backwardation) ... ideally spot should correct a little as 66$ is a long term tech number too .. but crude is crude .. it can keep rolling ...

WTI Crude Oil Trading

just to add -- technically speaking eur is still cleanly trading above 1105 weekly close line. yest lowest it traded was 1110 and 1116 is 38% fibo of this move up. so uptrend is in principle intact.

EURUSD only

no i have been doing nothing on gold unfortunately. just waiting for it to break out either side and it appears to be north now. but will see. the 1445 around bounce was clean 38% retrace of the 1265 - 1556 move too.

4 + 1 (Metals) strategy

after giving last weekly close north of 1468 (it was locked in 1458 - 1468 weekly close range for some time) -- this week i was waiting for 1467-68 to buy but yesterday it got bought at 1470 around and the kind of buying looks to warrant possibly a ...

4 + 1 (Metals) strategy

fyi german manufacturing pmis and 10y yields have been outperforming that of US since Oct-Nov -- fundamental reason why eur has rallied. whether it will continue is not known. US data -- in particular consumer confidence has been coming red 3 mnths ...

EURUSD only

bought 1.1129 .. tp 1.1170

EURUSD only

1116 was precisely 38% retrace of 980 --> 1199 and atleast last 24 hrs have seen push higher. further as i said earlier the last weekly close was >1105 imp number. so there might be chances euro might be trying to march higher even north of 1.12 ...

EURUSD only

Brent wise looks like it has broken the down-trending line since Oct 2018, after OPEC production cut news and retested / break confirmed after prev week touch of $63 followed by bounce higher. otherwise too us-china trade news and stock mkt strength ...

WTI Crude Oil Trading

lots of useful information on EURUSD on this group. thanks everyone for this. my views on EURUSD -- longer term i attach some probability of it trying to do what it did back in 2017 which is trying to reverse the longer term down-trend. probability ...

EURUSD only

managed to put some starter short position @ 1191. keeping eye on price movement around 1188 major fib and 1208 (61% retrace) minor fib ... expect EU to hv one leg from 1200 +/- area bk to 1100 area .. even if it has to go higher ultimately (all EU ...

EURUSD only

$63 on brent supported despite weak inventories. this is reflective of a trending up mkt possibly but it needs to go past 64.30 to reach next level of 66. overall weak dollar / strong S&P / OPEC cuts .. so makes sense.

WTI Crude Oil Trading

short NU position going as planned. 6570 proved to be resistance till now on dailies. will see how FOMC/EU IR decision affects it.

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

weeklies closing between 1458/1468 - rest all seems noise at the moment. whichever directional weekly close pierces that direction can maybe give extended move. no bias on this mkt atm.

Real Trading

further i expect kiwi gdp (to be released 19 dec) to disappoint in line with aussie gdp .. which should put back some pressure on N$

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

I am thinking the 6570 - 6600 +/- area can push kiwi back to 6430-40 levels trigger being FOMC/EU IR rate decision (in absence of any major kiwi data) and mid dec we have kiwi gdp etc which can decide how it moves from there. around 6600 area was ...

Nearly Naked (Simple Trades)

historically the catalyst for bigger movements for Oil has been: 1/ US dollar 2/ broader economic cycle 3/ Geopolitics 4/ Fundamentals of demand/supply this move by OPEC+ in principle do affect fundamentals by sucking out "theoretically" 2.1% of ...

WTI Crude Oil Trading

good i waited for daily close before thinking abt entering long on EU. as always weekly close most imp -- could not stand up to 1.1072 imp weekly number still, so it still remains a short. at the same time the mult pin bars around 1.098x is worth ...

EURUSD only

1st daily close > 1.1080 area yest; all dollar news coming weakish. looking to go long EU logically good entry point should be 1.107x area if uptrend is to continue (till 1.118x area at least).

EURUSD only