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xav replied May 13, 2020Yes they do, but the chances of a successful mutation is infinitesimally low. However, each new infected host brings the likelyhood of a successful mutation ever so closer. It's a big numbers game. So it is very important to drastically reduce the ...
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xav replied May 11, 2020All over the world, actually. Historical mortality rates are substantially exeeded in most countries (+16% in US) during covid and especially in urban areas (by +386% in New York City) as of April 11: url url I bet many people stay at home ...
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xav replied May 3, 2020url In New York, New Jersey, and Michigan there's 20k more deaths than statistically usual after accounting for Covid19 deaths. So instead of 36k corona deaths we might have 56k...
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xav replied May 1, 2020Let's see the stats a month from now. Hopefully you will be right and it was only a worry for nothing.
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xav replied May 1, 2020People aren't scared of the big sad number, they are scared of the exponential rise of it. Without protective measures that number will in a mere months be #1 cause of death. Of course it's not possible to shut down the world for an uncertain time ...
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xav replied May 1, 2020Countries have started to open up so a second wave is inevitable, the question is how severe it's going to be. A treatment would have to be highly effective and rapid to curb a second wave. It's more likely that we get a vaccine before that. Which ...
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xav replied Apr 21, 2020Sure. Things that in the past decade had negative net worth: real estate, government bonds, commodities, cash. We can throw out all econ books & degrees. I'm waiting for stock prices to go -. Maybe when a muppet forbids short selling it'll happen. ...
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xav replied Apr 21, 2020You're right, a broker can margin call you at any time. So if you went long @20 they can margin call you at -40. Even if your account is an old fashioned non-margin, non-leveraged one. I was making the case against long term investing (20-30 year ...
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xav replied Apr 21, 2020I understand why it went negative it's just so bizzarre that commodity prices no longer have the rock bottom set at "0". Conventional wisdom was that you can buy a commodity in a non-leveraged account and worst case scenario is that you lose your ...
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xav replied Apr 21, 2020One can trade oil as well as other commodities without expiration and physical delivery at several brokers. For example Oanda. I'm not sure however I'd invest in his time horizon with a broker like that. Theoretically one can break down a 20-year ...
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xav replied Apr 19, 2020I remember how his advisors were trying to stop him from tweeting during the (first) presidential race. They must have been the most shocked that this shit actually works.
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xav replied Apr 2, 2020Maybe nothing really has changed in eu except for a little volatility pickup. It's surprising really how stable this pair has been for the past few years and especially now.
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xav replied Apr 1, 2020Not without a full nationwide lockdown it won't. Alas, minor good news from Italy: url For the first time the Parma hospital doesn't have to keep patients in the waiting hall. There are still new cases, but at least this hospital starts getting ...
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xav replied Mar 28, 2020I have no idea how trustworthy this site is, but: url 45k urns for coronavirus deaths in Wuhan only. Official Chinese death toll ~4k.
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