GBPJPY — I'm not sure I understood everything you wrote. Basically my analysis tells me that the markets are in a correction after the 1st leg of the bull run. This tells me to expect GBPJPY to head down to around the 135 area. The pair found ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

COT — Hi Yebisu, Have you found a way to trade COT reports? I find that COT can confirm established trends and indications of possible reversals but due to the one week delay, it's hard to see when the reversal will occur. As for the Euro, ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Reversal in the commodity currencies? — Looks like price action is indicating a potential reversal in the commodity currencies, in particular AUDUSD, AUDJPY CADJPY and USDCAD. I'd like to see NZDUSD hit 0.7120 and NZDJPY hit 65.60 before ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Another proposal — Hi Shamstec, I have a better suggestion. Why don't you give your opinion, so we can discuss it.

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

The trend and the crowd both show midterm AUD and Euro weakening, and look what has happened both have gained. Perhaps others can shed some light but I feel this is the case only in short term trading when we have overbought/sold levels. In the end ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Long term trading — Holding on to long term positions is really difficult if you don't have a firm trading plan. And the trading plan MUST work with the trader's own personality and this is the hard part. I'm still working on this, so don't ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Targeting the reversal — The 38.2% fib level looks like the target now. Remember that this can change depending on when the Fed decides to hike interest rates. The timing of these rate hikes can push AUDUSD down to the 50% fib level, before ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Medium and Long Term — Hi rac, I'm glad this is helping you see things from a different perspective. This is only the beginning, once you learn the fundamentals enough to "see" the medium and long term trends, it will help you anticipate the ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Volume — Anything can happen during light trading volume, so I couldn't say that the market reacts in a predictable manner. There are times where you can see alot of volatility and there are times where prices don't move at all. The longer ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Euro debt crisis — I forgot to mention that EuroZone finance ministers are meeting today and will announce afterwards HOW the EU plans to support Greece. I suspect that they will mention something to the effect of helping Greece with reforms ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

AUDUSD — In the meantime, back to AUDUSD. What do you now derive from the way the commodity currencies have reacted to China’s next leg of tightening ? I would have expected the news to have had a lot more strength in pushing the AUDUSD lower. ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Different aspects — razor as you know using technical analysis is more simple than funadmental when you use an indictaor only thing you should care is e.g. red line is above green line or histogram bar is above some number and i think this is ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Toolbox — Hi capitalist88, Yes, I understood that was what dorostkar meant. What I wanted to show was that just as you "adjust" a moving average to suit short term or to medium term, you do the same thing with fundamentals. Unfortunately the ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

US Dollar Index — I respectfully hope to hear/read Razor's view - with respect to the consideration of the 'carry trade' winding down...and any proposed timeline as to when one might consider the U.S to raise rates. No problem. Around ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Welcome — Hi dorostkar, Welcome to the thread. i cant understand definition of these two situations (risk appetite and risk aversion) in forex Risk appetite is when investors are willing to take risks for greater profit. Risk aversion is when ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

Not in the short to medium term, Yes in the long term — Unfortunately, I don't think the BOSS fundamentals support it just yet. IMO, the BIG BOSS fundamentals DO point upwards on USDJPY, but these economic forces won't kick in until we see the ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Be careful with COT — In general, you are correct. However be very careful of trading by the COT report alone. I use the COT to CONFIRM my views and analysis. I'd wait until the Euro debt crisis cools down and the markets move towards risk ...

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

You maybe right — You may very well be right. What I'm looking at is the Fib from Feb 2 2009 to Nov 16 and the monthly charts tell me this correction over the medium term is overdue. I think we'll also see further monetary tightening in China ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

Risk aversion — I don't want to recommend trades to anyone, BUT yes, the odds are in favor of the short term trend lining up with medium term trend. I love market reversals!

Identifying Market Swings - Medium and Long Term Trading

10 rounds? Maybe .... — China's central bank just raised bank reserve rates by 50 basis points for the SECOND TIME this year. This pushes odds in favor of continued risk aversion thus continuing the downtrend in AUD, NZD and CAD over the ...

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading