Submitted Jan 20, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|7 comments

t’s been a difficult week for the Euro ‘bears’; you get downgraded, receive some suspect economic data and fail to agree on a ‘haircut,’ yet the currency appreciates +150pts from this years lows and in danger of edging even higher. What’s with that? ...

Submitted Jan 20, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|32 comments

This EUR move is not even a classic case of having to book profits believing that we are witnessing the single currency’s limited potential short term objective. The EUR seems to have run out steam this morning, as investors wait for market tidbits ...

Submitted Jan 18, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

You can just feel it, the EUR bulls are beginning to turn the screws. An impressive 24-hours has been “put in” by the single currency, retreat never an option, advance very much on the cards. Now that the IMF is officially using the T-word, ...

Submitted Jan 17, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|2 comments

The one and a half big figure slide in the single currency after the S&P’s rating announcements last week was a tad too much. Historically, with FX anticipating a downgrade, the EUR typically weakens -0.3%. Along with a few other positive gems that ...

Submitted Jan 16, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Friday’s sovereign credit rating downgrade by Standard & Poor’s brings a new sense of urgency to the European debt crisis. The move also shines a spotlight on the region’s abysmal adherence to the Eurozone’s fiscal management rules as leaders ...

Submitted Jan 16, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|14 comments

The market needs an extended break to digest what was dumped on her late Friday and Martin Luther King Day in the US gives us that opportunity. The decision by S&P to downgrade the sovereign ratings of nine euro-zone nations continues to weight on ...

Submitted Jan 14, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

For the first time sine the Asian crisis, China’s FX reserves fell in the last quarter of 2011. A $20.6b slip may only be a blip in China’s hoard of $3.18t in reserves. However, a reduction of this size has not been seen in nearly 14-years. Does it ...

Submitted Jan 14, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

Should we be questioning if US data is beginning to top out? This week, US releases were less than enthusiastic, with jobless claims rising smartly and retail sales disappointing. The steady improvement in initial jobless claims rose a rather ...

Submitted Jan 13, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The Spanish Bond and Italian Bill auctions were well received this week and gave the single currency hope for at least 24-hours. However, this morning’s final Italian issues of the week have provided the market an ideal opportunity and excuse to ...

Submitted Jan 13, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

All dealers can talk about is the limited upside of the single currency and that the risk reward favors shorting the EUR. Analysts have been revising their first quarter and year end projections down to an average of 1.22 and 1.15. Despite the ...

Submitted Jan 10, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Despite the increase of product, US Treasury yields continue to fluctuate ahead of this week’s three US issues totaling $66b. German Bunds on the other hand are definitely trading under pressure, falling for the first time in four days, ahead of the ...

Submitted Jan 10, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|3 comments

EUR bears are beginning to feel the heat as their currency decides to grind higher, force exiting some of the “weaker” yearly shorts. Last nights “next leg” uptick was fueled by the possibility that China again may warrant another easing cycle to ...

Submitted Jan 9, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

This is a week of crowded policy events and euro area sovereign issues. Currently, investors are witnessing a mild risk rally, with the dollar giving back some of Friday’s gains, especially against the commodity currencies. With such negative ...

Submitted Jan 7, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The ‘big’ dollar remains the go to currency. The market seems to be shifting away from wanting to own it solely as a risk aversion strategy, to one where the buck is being used as an investment currency while the EUR trades as the funding vehicle. ...

Submitted Jan 6, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|6 comments

Big picture, the markets are torn between the recent run of better than expected US data which has raised expectations for the payrolls number this morning, and worries about the euro-zone debt and health of European banks (UniCredit and Deutche ...

Submitted Jan 5, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

Fundamentals could not get the ball rolling, that was left to rumors of a ‘larger’ German bank requiring capital. Dollars and Yen continue to grind stronger allowing the EUR to print a 15-month low on funding stress issues in Euro-land. What Euro ...

Submitted Jan 4, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com

The loonie (1.0126) has been doing what’s expected of her when there is no domestic interest involved and that is move on innuendo and little volume. Big picture, the currency is performing rather well despite being put under pressure from a shift ...

Submitted Jan 4, 2012|From forexblog.oanda.com|1 comment

What are we waiting for? Despite yesterday being the beginning of the New Year for the rest of the world, it seems that the markets are underwhelmed by the rise in the US ISM. Thus far, it has failed to sustain a broad global equity rally or a ...