2) The most and least profitable pairs — You won’t find this advertised by your broker. What percentage of time do you think retailers (en masse) are winning more than they’re losing? Would you expect it to be similar across different pairs? ...

Strategy of losers

1) The disposition effect — 1) Inverse disposition at normal leverage, disposition and increased position size after sequences of 2+ wins/losses The disposition effect is the tendency for punters to hold on to losing trades for longer than ...

Strategy of losers

Thanks for the support guys! I won’t string this out too much so let’s crack on. Pricey – we can come back to it later but my experiment was based on ensuring there was a 50:50 chance of a win (ensuring spread is accounted for), like a coin toss. ...

Strategy of losers

The best traders in the world All this may sound negative – it’s not supposed to. Most retail traders don’t have a clue what they’re up against, statistically and the people on the other side of their trades. Not only do they have to contend with ...

Strategy of losers

Believe and you still probably won’t achieve “It’s the trader not the system” “Most systems are successful it’s the trader that lacks self-belief” “Look in the mirror, the holy grail is you” Run come save me. It’s the Mark Douglas effect, who ...

Strategy of losers

The mythical 95% We’ve all heard it, suspect it’s true, but no-one’s ever confirmed. I’ve heard the futures market is closer to 80% losers. And in FX, the closest I got to confirmation was meeting a UK bucketshop broker who reckoned it was about 80% ...

Strategy of losers

Hanover, sometimes I read your posts and shake my head in disbelief, because there's not a lot to say afterwards... Myths abound, the real question (another thread?) are what are the absolute truths in fx? - Price can only go up/down/sideways - ...

Myth Busters the Forex Edition

Good call Bill. I'd go one further. The second most pervasive myth - which should be self-evident, but clearly it isn't - is that self-belief will turn a losing system into a good one. It really can't. Define your edge or you'll be defined by ...

Myth Busters the Forex Edition

Spot on Dr G. Maths is fine to implement trading systems - simple volatility breakout ones are nothing but dumb equations and HFT systems appear to be based on Brownian motion algorithms (at least that what their job ads say they are looking for). ...

Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

Sorry, I should be clear that I'm not looking for an answer because for me the question's already been answered a long time ago. And maths is the wrong tool for this as well, because there's an assumption that non-random = profitable. But sticking ...

Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

Petra, what would constitute evidence of non-random behaviour?

Greenspan and Currencies - Delusional?

Tdion, has Germany robbed you of an open mind? The technical vs fundamental reminds me of the sales tactic of saying do you want the cheaper or more expensive car, which pre-supposes there are only two options. Information flow, sentiment, quant, ...

trading with fundamentals is the only way to go

Great resource, thanks Kenz

Importing FF news into Excel

Lol, obviously! Thanks Hanover. Now, anyone got experience of passing through variables using Excel web queries?

Importing FF news into Excel

Pipmutt, true, but the irony is the more frequently you trade, the more important execution and spreads are. Yet, i'm fairly certain that the more frequent traders on FF are, the more likely they are to be using a bucketshop rather than ECN. In ...

Defining who is a better trader...

Quantative edge number 312. It's a myth.

retracement of large candles - true or myth

Agh, I vowed I'd sit out on this thread but Peter, I always liked your posts, so briefly... "As I understand it, a major order may have to be filled in stages due to the need to keep a level of secrecy or simply due to the available orders resting ...

(binned per thread starter's request) Behind Price-Orderflow

"You can't win anything in life on the back of someone else's confidence." Best quote of this whole thread. That's a story with heart and soul Daytrading. A related question - Schwager always seems (seemed?) to me like someone who was constantly ...

Forex Mentors - The Best Investment You Can Make?