[quote=AaronWard;8510954] EMH does not imply rational behavior, as far as I understand it implies that all available information is already priced in the current price, Strong EMH has been questionable in recent years, the biggest problem has been ...

Breakout, Fakeout or a Reversal?

if you can see the difference real time between image and image then you will be rich soon.

How many strategies does one need?

your first statement alludes to "Nedging" I think that concept has been dis-proven. I never stated that you can have a correlation of 1 (perfect correlation) otherwise then it is exactly identical to your first asset. Trading on the Edges of the ...

How many strategies does one need?

we are going around in circles here, if your conclusion is the above statement ... I don't think we disagree. The question is can you actually spot such opportunities.

How many strategies does one need?

yeah, I apologize... I don't understand your position. my opinion still stands then, for the OP trade one pair... the most liquid as you will incur less spread.

How many strategies does one need?

you have very interesting thoughts here, so you add to your position (increase your risk exposure) when you see it advantageous whether be it intra-day or short/medium term, then scale back your investment to limit your risk. if you are trading ...

How many strategies does one need?

by this statement you are still speculating on the value of the USD, I think what is not clear to me is your goal. a basket of currencies will be more diversified as it pertains to the economy of a particular country vs The value of the USD, however ...

How many strategies does one need?

that statement tells me that you are still looking for positive/negative correlation ( assent/usd or usd/asset), why not pick currency/usd or usd/currency then and save the transaction costs? Trend-following is a niche style of strategic investment ...

How many strategies does one need?

here is my thought, perhaps I am wrong. in the currency market we have the reserve currency of the world the USD, all other currency values are measured against the USD, so in essence either a currency is positively or negatively correlated to it. ...

How many strategies does one need?

we are talking about forex here right? if you diversify into an inverse correlated currency... explain to me how you are not shifting your position on the USD + incurring transaction costs.

How many strategies does one need?

I think the problem has a lot to do with the academic discussion of EMH, and market predictability. If you take the ACF of the eur/usd log returns then we see the following image the auto correlation of the log returns at one hour can be ...

Breakout, Fakeout or a Reversal?

I don't quite understand why you are equating the currency market with stocks. In a well diversified portfolio if I'm not mistaken, the point of diversification is to mitigate risk while profiting from dividends. If you want to diversify in a retail ...

How many strategies does one need?

my bad, I read your statement wrong you are taking calls, am not familiar with option strategies so I would just be speaking out of ignorance.

How important is correlation in trading

if you do it, right. you are out of the market, just paid the spread. I am not sure you can arbitrage the roll over rates, given the spread and negative rate on the other currency. why not just stay out?

How important is correlation in trading

Your daughter can predict price with a cross over system? And you are a successful retired trader now bouncer? This seems a bit farfetched I'm not sure if you are being comical

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

You are correct to point this out. Thanks for setting me straight.

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

You seem to agree with me in a disagreeing tone. .... I'm a bit confused

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

url let's explore this chart briefly: at 1.3860 there was a spike, where oders were matched and ate up liquidity upto almost 1.39 price range then an influx of sell orders brougth the equilibrium down to 1.3860 then the next 15 minute candle was ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I can pull out a chart, and show you What assumptions I follow regarding the market, I can talk to you about my assumptions on the current state of the world and give you calculations on running standard deviations or GARCH 1,1 models, then tell you ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

If this was the case that price at T_0 can affect future price then it would be said that price is Auto correlated .....yet it is not. This implies that future returns are not contingent upon past returns. Yet Price itself follows some rules as far ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?