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merlin replied Apr 1, 2008i definitely see your point about bonds and their ability to lose all value. but bonds backed by the US treasury have close to zero default risk. in fact tbills are considered "risk less" in the financial world. sure there is interest rate risk, but ...
subprime - it takes a cartoon to understand this stuff...
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merlin replied Apr 1, 2008:surprised wow another crazy rally today...not enough for me to change my view that this thing is gunna tank, but certainly impressive. in an absolute sense todays news wasnt that good, which gives you an idea of just where the market sentiment is!
Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 31, 2008but of course! sorry should have know that

"Bank Flow" Trading - Resources?
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merlin replied Mar 31, 2008LOL!! the queen sounds like a great politician! what a great way to connect with the little people

Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 31, 2008obviously the AUDUSD and gold both have the dollar in common, so its easy to see why the charts look like that. but is the AUDUSD more correlated than say the EURUSD? and for what reason? my guess would be the high aussie interest rates aka the ...
Aspen Trading Group - Let's Talk Charts
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merlin replied Mar 30, 2008nice find
maybe we should start a petition for more financial coverage??OOOPS! Jim Kramer got this one wrong
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merlin replied Mar 28, 2008so is the PPT going to save the day today? you know they dont like sliding on a friday

Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 28, 2008i had originally sided with Cramer on this one, but after further review i think this is just a big excuse for making one of the loudest mistakes in financial history. booo-you Cramer!!! btw, that Daily Show segment on the financial markets the ...
OOOPS! Jim Kramer got this one wrong
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merlin replied Mar 27, 2008yes this is a great example of how we can use hedging to our advantage. you are using multiple markets in your example, which is how most hedging is done. the intention of this thread was to uncover hedging opportunities WITHIN the currency ...
hedging one currency pair with another
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merlin replied Mar 27, 2008well if you want to sell the dow, now looks like a great time to do it. we are at the top of the recent range so you can use a tight stop while waiting for it to plunge. not a certain winner by any means, but definetely looks like a good R/R!

Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 26, 2008yep thats right, all numbers reported on the FF calendar are seasonally adjusted (SA). the SA numbers are most popular because they take the seasonal fluctuations into account.
Is Japan headed towards recession?
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merlin replied Mar 26, 2008very interesting idea
how did you come up with this? is this a ralph vince theory?? i vaguely remember reading something like this. well i dont have the excel you are looking for, but based on the equations i think it would probably be ...Excel Template for calculating IRR and NPV
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merlin replied Mar 25, 2008
you know you are playing a unusual game when the players are also the commentators!Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 25, 2008im slightly familiar with NPV and IRR from my busienss experience, but ive not seen them used in trading. how exactly are you using these concept for trading? are you trying to compare your trading returns to something else?
Excel Template for calculating IRR and NPV
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merlin replied Mar 24, 2008yeah it sure is looking like a long road ahead...the complexities of this deal are enormous, ive been reading countless analysis but still find it hard to wrap my head around everything. if the fed werent involved it would be easier to digest. btw, ...
Wall Street close watch
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merlin replied Mar 24, 2008yeah im sure its offered somewhere, but i dont know of any sources either. i dont think this data would be too valuable either, it would be really hard to construct a back test on such enormous amounts of data. btw, there ARE a lot of automated ...
"Bank Flow" Trading - Resources?
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merlin replied Mar 24, 2008it really depends on the intention of the trader behind the order. if it is in the best interest of the trader to show the order, he will do so. if it helps him to hide it then he will do everything he can to mask his operations. the thing about ...
"Bank Flow" Trading - Resources?
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merlin replied Mar 21, 2008btw, we had a spinoff to this thread about REAL hedging: url it is a good thread, although there is a lot more to discuss about it

whats with this "hedging" thing??