WWI started with everybody wanting a war. WWII was simply an inevitable continuation of WWI. WWIII will be over something much more important than East Ukraine. I can see Ukraine becoming another Afghanistan where all the big armies can fail ...

The Swamp

The biggest risk in shorting to me seems an agreement with the Russians. So until 1286 & 1387 holds I'm in range trading. Also, non-commercials have reduced their shorts significantly (about 10k vs reducing longs by 1k). I just don't see how much eu ...

The Swamp

One and half weeks later I wonder how much of the Russian news is not already priced in. The only thing I see is that non-commercials are significantly reducing short positions.

The Swamp

5.6bn opex @ 1350-90. Barring major news why would price leave this range today?

The Swamp

Full disclosure. Tomorrow is FOMC minutes. And the FOMC level is 1284. Funny how everything makes sense to the left.

The Swamp

Any level either holds or not. This isn't the same as foolishness.

The Swamp

That's a very bullish 4h. Which reminds me of sg sisse taught us: price will always return to the scene of the crime. Which in this Russian invasion-nonsense is 1.1392 and 'coincidentally' a mofu. So larger bears might want that level, also bulls ...

The Swamp

This all may or may not be true. Google is a European company in those stats. Beamers have price elasticity and a loooong waiting list worldwide. Chevy don't. And it still looks like a huge bullish flag on the daily... Also, everyone was sceptical ...

The Swamp

Agree with that. But I rarely see option data showing this much vulnerability for such a small move's worth. (50-100 pips and everyone is toast) Also I bet there's a lot of whining/crying/praying for pa to get back below 1.14/13. It'll be ...

The Swamp

opex for this week as of this morning shows only 862m @ 1.15 on Th & 2b @ 1495-00 + 923m @ 1.155 on Fr This means that barely any option carried over from last week for 1.15+ expiries... Which means two things: almost noone expected pa to get over ...

The Swamp

I assure you that the gentle folks that steal other people's work won't call it motherfuckers. If you know the reverse chances, as in 1230 before 1372, you can construct a nice a little weighted hedge that gives you guaranteed returns.

The Swamp

LOLs, I know. I was just having fun, but I thought calling it "mofu" was obvious enough. I'm a long time reader of this thread and got a load of new ideas here, so I keep popping back. I just don't post much because this isn't a trade journal and ...

The Swamp

Yes, in a consolidation every s/r gets squished together so we cannot be sure which one is actually working at that time. I'm just looking for smaller moves for earlier signs of what is to come. Basically, if I'm right within this year and wrong 10 ...

The Swamp

Do you believe in mofus? Because there's a mofu at 1391. It goes with 1492. And 1289 which is very rarely mentioned in this thread. But if pa bounces at 61.8 then traditionally the target is 161.8. So 1492 - 1289 are really, really important figures ...

The Swamp

So, are they going to start selling dollar now that for two months it has been continuously dropping, or have they been selling all this time and just try to squeeze this a little more?

The Swamp

Yes. And the alternative count is that it stalled at the 50% retrace from 2350 to 1950 at 2150. Which held for the last three days. So it might do another 400 down to 1750. Or a 100 down to 50% of the bull from 1950 to 2150. Something's gotta give ...

The Swamp

How did deals get made?

The Swamp

url Might also add that this channel is still very much working. Except now we have a ghost line from that 1.1814 high. That just happens to be 1.1229 for today. Also, I knew something is very familiar about that 1.1209: url

The Swamp

IF you disregard the corona-swings in march the last lower high is 1.1239. If that's taken out then we might target 1.1448 which is the 2017 midway. Or 1.1596 which is half of the 2yr bear. So it seems to me that both bulls and bears want this to go ...

The Swamp

For every strain? Most coronaviruses - like the flu - come back with a new strain every year. That's why there's no vaccine against the flu. By the time they'd come up with one there's already a new strain. Covid-19 already has 2 strains. So that's ...

The Swamp