No worries, they're from my desk notes, glad others find them useful too.

UMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expected

You're very welcome.

UMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expected

Initial market reaction will likely be choppy as it digests the conflicting signals, but the underlying message is clear: the US is facing a stagflationary environment that the Eurozone, according to the ECB & Lagarde yesterday, is not. The ...

UMich September prelim consumer sentiment 55.4 vs 58.0 expected

The narrative is bullish again as risk-on sentiment roars back today. The weaker USD and surging US equities are highly supportive for the high-beta AUD. While the JPY is also strong due to falling yields, the "risk-on" impulse has become the ...

Australian dollar set for best week since April as bullish case builds

The killer quote is this, when asked if the easing cycle is over, she pivoted to say, "The disinflationary process is over." A definitive statement that slams the door on the idea of imminent rate cuts.

ECB's Lagarde: Risks to economic growth are more balanced

Subtly more hawkish than neutral hold headline suggests. Upward revision of 2025 growth forecast from 0.9% to 1.2%; directly contradicts narrative of slowly Eurozone. Slightly lowered 2026 growth forecast, however N/T signal bullish. Lagarde tone ...

ECB's Lagarde: Risks to economic growth are more balanced

CPI generating hawkish signal; stickiness coming from shelter, transport services. Reinforces narrative of persistent services inflation. Gives the hawks @ Fed justification to hold on 50bps cut, increases chance of 25bps cut instead (mostly priced ...

US Consumer Price Index - August 2025

CPI generating hawkish signal; stickiness coming from shelter, transport services. Reinforces narrative of persistent services inflation. Gives the hawks @ Fed justification to hold on 50bps cut, increases chance of 25bps cut instead (mostly priced ...

US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

As expected, however subtly more hawkish than the neutral hold headline suggests.The most significant detail is the upward revision of the 2025 growth forecast to 1.2% from 0.9%. This is a direct contradiction to the prevailing market narrative of a ...

ECB monetary policy decisions

High Yield (4.033%): The auction cleared at a lower yield than what the market was anticipating just moments before the auction closed (known as a "stop-through"). This is a clear sign of aggressive demand; investors were willing to accept a ...

US Treasury Auction Results

There is more to macro than bad prints equals currency weakness, you have to consider second order effects of news too. When there is profound uncertainty and a "what is real?" moment in markets, global capital does not flow to the Eurozone (where ...

US Producer Price Index - August 2025

The dovish narrative has been supercharged. The combination of last week's abysmal jobs report, yesterday's huge benchmark revision, and today's deflationary PPI print is a trifecta of weakness. As noted by Commerzbank, the debate is no longer about ...

US Producer Price Index - August 2025

The fallout from the French no-confidence vote continues, no doubt President Macron's appointment of Sébastien Lecornu as the new Prime Minister will not be seen as a solution to the political deadlock. This political uncertainty will act as a major ...

Sébastien Lecornu appointed as new French prime minister

A Crisis of Confidence = A Flight to Safety: A revision of this magnitude is not just a data point; it's a systemic shock. It throws the reliability of all recent US data into question. When there is profound uncertainty and a "what is real?" moment ...

NFP revision -911K, biggest on record!

Preliminary GDP (Q2): Came in at 3.3%, a solid beat of the 3.1% forecast and an upward revision from the initial 3.0% print. On the surface, this is unequivocally strong and USD-positive. Why it's not that strong: The key is in the inflation ...

U.S. Dollar Retreats Despite Strong GDP Data: Analysis For EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CAD, USD/JPY

Agreed.

US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Agreed, for now my Fed/ECB divergence narrative remains intact. The US data was not strong enough to challenge dovish Fed expectations (and increasingly Trump's politicisation of them), especially as the ECB minutes were fairly hawkish despite split ...

US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Market Interpretation: "Good, but Not Good Enough" The Headline: Came in at 229k, slightly better than the 231k forecast and below the prior week's 235k. The Guts (Why it's just "fine"): This is a solid, but not spectacular, number. It pours cold ...

US Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims

Market Interpretation: "Good, but Not Good Enough" The Headline: Came in at 3.3%, a solid beat of the 3.1% forecast and an upward revision from the initial 3.0% print. On the surface, this is unequivocally strong and USD-positive. The Guts (Why it's ...

US Gross Domestic Product (Second Estimate), Corporate Profits (Preliminary Estimate), Second...

High level ECB minutes breakdown: 1. Increased Confidence in Eurozone Growth (Relative to the US): This is the most important development. The minutes explicitly state that the Euro area economy appears "more resilient... than anticipated." ...

Account of the monetary policy meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank...