Browsing through Oanda's positions charts, it seems that USD/CAD is still a prime short - with 80% of traders long consistently over the last 2 weeks, while the pair dropped 4%. url

USDCAD trend reversal?

AFAICS, the CB's from the majors have the unenviable task of popping a bubble slowly. Or rather lots of bubbles (Dow, housing, derivatives, gov't & personal debt, boomer lifestyles...). Not an enviable task. I think this story still has lots of time ...

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

That's certainly true, but rather too vague to be useful. Most patterns are defined not just in terms of their immediate characteristics, but in terms of their priors as well, and the need to account for those statistically in order to analyze the ...

technical price patterns' Rate of failure.

birdt - good topic. Re $/CAD and oil; I've heard this as "oil thursday" - I think the last thursday of the month, supposedly when regular transfers are made from the US purchasers to Canadian suppliers, though a futures settle makes sense as well. ...

Seasonal/daily tendencies in FX?

mosad2 - a few years back a researcher at the Fed (IIRC) looked at H&S patterns and found that they worked, but they did vary by ccy pair. Someone else did research on breakouts, based on longer term street channels, and also got good results, but I ...

technical price patterns' Rate of failure.

True, bust isn't Northern Crock primarily a retail bank? BoE, from what I understand, is backing up retail clients vis-a-vis normal deposits, but AFAIK the investment banks and hedge funds are on their own.

This makes no sense whatsoever?

Nice calls MoForce. BTW - take a look at the fib levels generated by the last rise - 1.618 is sitting right about parity...

USDCAD trend reversal?

Plutonite - perhaps it did; the only ccy that didn't surge against the USD on the Fed release was the Yen which funds the US stock market and loan debacles. Re. eur and gbp - I still believe there are lots of Northern Crocks out there, so that aside ...

This makes no sense whatsoever?

When the focus is on bonds, then reports that point to higher interest rates tend to push up ccy pairs. But right now the focus is on sub-prime (in both UK and US) and stocks (in the US) both of which might be helped by lower rates. Also Lehman's ...

This makes no sense whatsoever?

GF - good idea, the size of the move pretty much caught me by surprise., though after the false break of the triangle early this morning + the quick move up earlier it shouldn't have. I am still watching it though against the 200-day MVA, currently ...

EUR/JPY Trading Room

Oil — Just saw the headline that oil has hit a new record in Asia trade at USD 81.04....

USD/CAD Trading Room

Thankjs NewstraderFX, very well written article. Thoughts on the TIC data? Sometimes that can be a real market mover; bad TIC data + a dovish fed could be good news for CAD and JPY, and bad for the USD, and perhaps the GBP (via fallout) as well...

Trading Sep, 18th Fed's rate statement

Thinking about this, I think my immediate aims are a little more prosaic. I'd really like to have something that just ran in background and would identify signals I may have missed (I'm easily distracted, especially by the FF ) or potential ...

Automated Trading

The pair is lookingup to test a moderately strong trend line (albeit on the 15 min charts, and only a week old) currently at 159.15. Wouldn't mention it except that it has been tested a number of times and held....

EUR/JPY Trading Room

The fuinny thing is that when I got my undergrad (Math & Physics) the head of the business school told me that I could get into a certain MBA school, and if I stuck it out for the 2 years, I'd have pots of money. Foolish me, I decided to go the pure ...

Automated Trading

I'll put it on my list. Thanks. Have you read his other books (particularly the essays on the Depression)? Just curious, I've never read any of his work...

greenspan still has excellent timing

I've got an M.SC im math (number theory) + a year of doctoral work (differential equations & fluid dynamics), but lust drove me out of the classroom Actually the need to finance my lust did it Then 6-7 years working in ...

Automated Trading

Finally had a chance to get back to John J. Murphy's book (Technical Analysis in the Financial Markets) which is pretty definitive. Re trendlines, several important points - they are drawn off the highs & lows (not opens & closes); with only two ...

Drawing a Trendline

I'm a true believer in skepticism BTW - I would be very skeptical of your Thomas Mann quote. At least it dodn't work for me.....

Do Not Yell At Me For Discussing Fundamentals

200-day SMA and other musings — The 200-day SMA could provide an important level going into Monday. I calculate it on the close and prefer the value based on regular trading days ( a la NY) rather than MT's funny schedule; right now it's at ...

EUR/JPY Trading Room