You obviously didn't hear me when I said that currencies bounce back. A 700 pip stop is an invitation to get screwed by somebody who knows a lot more than you. "This is where I am willing to give up - come take it!" Never worked at Lehman, don't ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Nope. That is an assumption, based on the idea that the market will continue to move adversely and not reverse. You don't know that. In fact, currencies have been shown over and over to have a Hurst Coefficient < 0.5, which makes them ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

Not trying to start a fuss, but I have to say that the chart you posted does not look dangerous to me. I don't use stops and I trade manually off M1 charts. I would have to say that even a rather quick look at your posted chart reveals a lot: 1) The ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I think that the Founding Question of this thread has it a bit backwards. The real question is why so many people believed in the EMH for as long as they did. Randomness is not any kind of reasonable default assumption about anything, except to a ...

why have you accepted the price-predictability assumption?

I appreciate your reply. The points you raise are valid issues. I believe that we both see the issue pretty clearly, but perhaps differ a bit in our personal preference for how to approach this problem. I am reacting to a long history of doing it ...

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Hello Mr. Pip, Thank you for starting this thread and for your insights. I have a problem with stops. I understand the conventional wisdom and I have lived by it in all my prior trading expeditions. When I worked at a brokerage in the '80s & '90s, I ...

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Ok. Are you familiar with GARCH? If not, check into it and you will see what I mean. The market consists of prices which change, but these changes are affected by an autoregressive memory process. That means that the past has an impact on the ...

Manual Trading vs Automatic Trading - Suggestions?

Thanks for pointing me to the right references. I will check into this. "Detecting weakness in the current direction..." Ok. I get it. I tend to do the opposite, but I am new to this. I follow my 'primary hypothesis of the future' until a more ...

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Hello, Looks like a great thread. I have a few questions. I hope I am on-topic; my apologies if I am not. I see a lot of chart patterns on this thread. Chart patterns have always seemed disingenuous to me, because they always look so obvious in ...

Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

Hi Folks (1st post) I am new to spot FX, but I traded futures extensively in the 1990s and for a time held a Series 3 license. You have to be able to 'read' the market from just a bar or candle chart to have any hope of sustained profit. Why? ...

Manual Trading vs Automatic Trading - Suggestions?